Description (optional)
The Rapid Refresh Forecast System (RRFS) coupled with Smoke and Dust is NOAA’s next-generation high-resolution regional forecast model, due for operational implementation in early 2026. In addition to many traditional meteorological variables, the RRFS includes variables related to wildfire smoke and dust particles, not only to directly forecast these parameters that are important for air quality and visibility forecasts, but also to account for their effect on radiation and resulting impact on meteorological forecasts.In the Developmental Testbed Center (DTC) we have, for the past several years, made use of the enhanced Model Evaluation Tools (METplus) within the Unified Forecast System (UFS) Short-Range Weather (SRW) Application to verify multiple types of forecast model output, including the RRFS. Since late 2024, we have been working on extending the existing verification capabilities to include forecasts of particulate matter (PM) and aerosol optical depth in order to compare the forecasts of these variables to observations.
In this presentation, we will show verification results for RRFS forecasts for smoke and dust, as well as meteorological variables that are particularly sensitive to smoke and dust outbreaks such as surface temperature. These forecasts will be compared not only to observations but also to smoke forecasts from the current-generation High-Resolution Rapid Refresh model (HRRR). We will also highlight potential and planned future developments for METplus verification in the context of the UFS.
| Period | Jan 26 2026 |
|---|---|
| Event title | 106th Annual American Meteorological Society Meeting |
| Event type | Conference |
| Conference number | 106 |
| Location | Houston, United States, TexasShow on map |