Predicting climate change in the near-term, over time horizons of up to a few decades into the future, is a relatively new and rapidly evolving field of climate science. Such “decadal prediction” research is aimed at bridging the gap between seasonal-to-interannual forecasting carried out by many operational weather services worldwide, and the centennial timescale future climate change projections that are the mainstays of the periodic IPCC assessments. Decadal time scales and regional spatial scales are particularly relevant to policy makers and other climate stakeholders. Skillful decadal predictions have the potential to confer tremendous benefits to society by providing advance warning of climate changes such as prolonged droughts, severe heat waves, and increased hurricane activity. The nominated publication distinguishes itself as an outstanding publication on the topic of decadal prediction in several respects:
* This study has provided impetus for continued and expanded decadal prediction efforts at NCAR, and influenced the latest Strategic Plans of NCAR, NESL and CGD that now highlight decadal climate prediction as a Grand Challenge objective (NCAR Strategic Plan: 2014-2019).
* It demonstrates that significant decadal prediction skill is possible today using community models developed by NCAR.
* It goes beyond simply documenting predictive skill by providing a clear explanation of the physical processes that give rise to that skill through a rigorous and innovative analysis of a relevant case study.
* Its immediate and lasting impact on the international research community is evidenced by a high and accelerating citation rate.
Each of the co-authors brought unique and essential skills to the study and all five are included in the nomination.