A public-private-academic partnership to advance solar forecasting

The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) is leading a multi-disciplinary team to perform useinspired research to advance solar power forecasting. The research focuses on a series of technologies that span the continuum of solar forecasting from 15 min to 36 hours. Solar radiation measurement and cloud observation and tracking techniques are being advanced along with methods to quantify and track aerosols that affect cloud formation and radiative transfer, including the prediction of haze and contrails. Other efforts focus on short-term prediction of cloud properties based primarily on observations, assimilation of cloud observations from various sources into numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, and integration of new cloud physical processes and parameterizations into NWP models. The team aims to transition the research toward operational use in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) based High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) system. The project will incorporate a prototype solar forecasting system into operations and test it in collaboration with utilities and independent system operators in geographically diverse areas, such Long Island, Colorado, coastal California, Florida, and Hawaii.