A Unified Theory for the Global Thunderstorm Distribution and Land–Sea Contrast

John M. Peters; Daniel R. Chavas; Chun Yian Su; Elisa M. Murillo; Gretchen L. Mullendore

doi:10.1029/2025GL120252

A Unified Theory for the Global Thunderstorm Distribution and Land–Sea Contrast

John M. Peters
, Daniel R. Chavas
, Chun Yian Su
, Elisa M. Murillo
, Gretchen L. Mullendore

Pennsylvania State University
Purdue University
National Taiwan University
National Center for Atmospheric Research

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

1 Scopus citations

Abstract

This article evaluates Entraining CAPE (ECAPE) as a thunderstorm proxy in climate studies using Global Precipitation Measurement satellite observations. ECAPE modifies traditional CAPE to account for the dependence of entrainment on the vertical wind shear, the lifted condensation level (LCL) height, and the properties of a cloud's surrounding atmosphere. ECAPE shows stronger pattern correlations with global regions of intense thunderstorms than previous metrics for updraft speed. In these regions, large CAPE, large shear, and high LCLs conspire to produce wide updrafts that are shielded from the negative effects of dry-air entrainment. ECAPE more skillfully discriminates intense thunderstorms from their less intense counterparts than other metrics commonly used in climatology and climate change studies of thunderstorms. We provide evidence that the well-known land-sea contrast in thunderstorm intensity is a consequence of larger CAPE and higher LCL heights over land than over the ocean.

Original language	English
Article number	e2025GL120252
Number of pages	11
Journal	Geophysical Research Letters
Volume	53
Issue number	1
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1029/2025GL120252
State	Published - Jan 16 2026
Externally published	Yes

Funding

Special thanks go out to two anonymous peer reviewers and Quinn Mulhern for extremely helpful feedback on earlier versions of this manuscript. J. M. Peters was supported by National Science Foundation (NSF) Grant AGS-2149353 and the Department of Energy Atmospheric System Research (DOE ASR) Grant DE-SC0022942. Chun-Yian Su was supported by the National Science and Technology Council of Taiwan through Grants 113-2111-M-002-017-MY3, 114-2119-M-002-025, and 114-2119-M-002-027. E. M. Murillo and G. L. Mullendore were supported by NASA Grant 80NSSC25K7631 and by the NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research, which is a major facility sponsored by the NSF under Cooperative Agreement 1852977.

Funders	Funder number
NSF	1852977
NASA	80NSSC25K7631
National Science and Technology Council of Taiwan	113-2111-M-002-017-MY3, 114-2119-M-002-025, 114-2119-M-002-027
Department of Energy Atmospheric System Research	DE-SC0022942
National Science Foundation	AGS-2149353

Keywords

entraining CAPE
entrainment
global precipitation mission
lifted condensation level
thunderstorms
vertical wind shear

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10.1029/2025GL120252

Cite this

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title = "A Unified Theory for the Global Thunderstorm Distribution and Land–Sea Contrast",

abstract = "This article evaluates Entraining CAPE (ECAPE) as a thunderstorm proxy in climate studies using Global Precipitation Measurement satellite observations. ECAPE modifies traditional CAPE to account for the dependence of entrainment on the vertical wind shear, the lifted condensation level (LCL) height, and the properties of a cloud's surrounding atmosphere. ECAPE shows stronger pattern correlations with global regions of intense thunderstorms than previous metrics for updraft speed. In these regions, large CAPE, large shear, and high LCLs conspire to produce wide updrafts that are shielded from the negative effects of dry-air entrainment. ECAPE more skillfully discriminates intense thunderstorms from their less intense counterparts than other metrics commonly used in climatology and climate change studies of thunderstorms. We provide evidence that the well-known land-sea contrast in thunderstorm intensity is a consequence of larger CAPE and higher LCL heights over land than over the ocean.",

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A Unified Theory for the Global Thunderstorm Distribution and Land–Sea Contrast

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Keywords

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