Advancements in Hurricane Prediction With NOAA's Next-Generation Forecast System

We use the fvGFS model developed at the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory to demonstrate the potential of the upcoming United States Next-Generation Global Prediction System for hurricane prediction. The fvGFS retrospective forecasts initialized with the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) data showed much-improved track forecasts for the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season compared to the best-performing ECMWF operational model. The fvGFS greatly improved the ECMWF's poor track forecast for Hurricane Maria (2017). For Hurricane Irma (2017), a well-predicted case by the ECMWF model, the fvGFS produced even lower five-day track forecast errors. The fvGFS also showed better intensity prediction than both the United States and the ECMWF operational models, indicating the robustness of its numerical algorithms.