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An application of the schaake shuffle technique to generate space-time consistent AQ predictions

    • National Center for Atmospheric Research
    • National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

    Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contributionpeer-review

    Abstract

    Several statistical methods used to generate ensemble forecast of air pollutants or different meteorological variables do not represent accurately the covariance between neighbouring stations or temporal correlation between subsequent lead times. Probabilistic predictions of O3 and PM2.5 surface concentrations over the U.S. are generated with the analog ensemble (AnEn) technique. The ensemble members provided by AnEn are statistically indistinguishable and they are generated without space-time correlation. We apply the Schaake Shuffle technique to reorder the ensemble members and recover space-time variability of PM2.5 and O3 forecast time-series.

    Original languageEnglish
    Title of host publicationHARMO 2016 - 17th International Conference on Harmonisation within Atmospheric Dispersion Modelling for Regulatory Purposes, Proceedings
    EditorsZita Ferenczi, Laszlo Bozo, Marta T. Puskas
    PublisherHungarian Meteorological Service
    Pages663-665
    Number of pages3
    ISBN (Electronic)9789639931107
    StatePublished - 2016
    Event17th International Conference on Harmonisation within Atmospheric Dispersion Modelling for Regulatory Purposes, HARMO 2016 - Budapest, Hungary
    Duration: May 9 2016May 12 2016

    Publication series

    NameHARMO 2016 - 17th International Conference on Harmonisation within Atmospheric Dispersion Modelling for Regulatory Purposes, Proceedings
    Volume2016-May

    Conference

    Conference17th International Conference on Harmonisation within Atmospheric Dispersion Modelling for Regulatory Purposes, HARMO 2016
    Country/TerritoryHungary
    CityBudapest
    Period05/9/1605/12/16

    Keywords

    • Air quality ensemble forecasting
    • Analog Ensemble
    • Schaake Shuffle

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