An application of the schaake shuffle technique to generate space-time consistent AQ predictions

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contributionpeer-review

Abstract

Several statistical methods used to generate ensemble forecast of air pollutants or different meteorological variables do not represent accurately the covariance between neighbouring stations or temporal correlation between subsequent lead times. Probabilistic predictions of O3 and PM2.5 surface concentrations over the U.S. are generated with the analog ensemble (AnEn) technique. The ensemble members provided by AnEn are statistically indistinguishable and they are generated without space-time correlation. We apply the Schaake Shuffle technique to reorder the ensemble members and recover space-time variability of PM2.5 and O3 forecast time-series.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationHARMO 2016 - 17th International Conference on Harmonisation within Atmospheric Dispersion Modelling for Regulatory Purposes, Proceedings
EditorsZita Ferenczi, Laszlo Bozo, Marta T. Puskas
PublisherHungarian Meteorological Service
Pages663-665
Number of pages3
ISBN (Electronic)9789639931107
StatePublished - 2016
Event17th International Conference on Harmonisation within Atmospheric Dispersion Modelling for Regulatory Purposes, HARMO 2016 - Budapest, Hungary
Duration: May 9 2016May 12 2016

Publication series

NameHARMO 2016 - 17th International Conference on Harmonisation within Atmospheric Dispersion Modelling for Regulatory Purposes, Proceedings
Volume2016-May

Conference

Conference17th International Conference on Harmonisation within Atmospheric Dispersion Modelling for Regulatory Purposes, HARMO 2016
Country/TerritoryHungary
CityBudapest
Period05/9/1605/12/16

Keywords

  • Air quality ensemble forecasting
  • Analog Ensemble
  • Schaake Shuffle

Fingerprint

Dive into the research topics of 'An application of the schaake shuffle technique to generate space-time consistent AQ predictions'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

Cite this