An estimate of the detectability of rising flux tubes

The physics of the formation of magnetic active regions (ARs) is one of the most important problems in solar physics. One main class of theories suggests that ARs are the result of magnetic flux that rises from the tachocline. Time-distance helioseismology, which is based on measurements of wave propagation, promises to allow the study of the subsurface behavior of this magnetic flux. Here, we use a model for a buoyant magnetic flux concentration together with the ray approximation to show that the dominant effect on the wave propagation is expected to be from the roughly 100 m s^-1 retrograde flow associated with the rising flux. Using a B-spline-based method for carrying out inversions of wave travel times for flows in spherical geometry, we show that at 3 days before emergence the detection of this retrograde flow at a depth of 30Mm should be possible with a signal-to-noise level of about 8 with a sample of 150 emerging ARs.