Atmospheric rivers in Antarctica

Jonathan D. Wille; Vincent Favier; Irina V. Gorodetskaya; Cécile Agosta; Rebecca Baiman; J. E. Barrett; Léonard Barthelemy; Burcu Boza; Deniz Bozkurt; Mathieu Casado; Anastasiia Chyhareva; Kyle R. Clem; Francis Codron; Rajashree Tri Datta; Claudio Durán-Alarcón; Diana Francis; Andrew O. Hoffman; Marlen Kolbe; Svitlana Krakovska; Gabrielle Linscott; Michelle L. Maclennan; Kyle S. Mattingly; Ye Mu; Benjamin Pohl; Christophe Leroy Dos Santos; Christine A. Shields; Emir Toker; Andrew C. Winters; Ziqi Yin; Xun Zou; Chen Zhang; Zhenhai Zhang

doi:10.1038/s43017-024-00638-7

Atmospheric rivers in Antarctica

Jonathan D. Wille
, Vincent Favier
, Irina V. Gorodetskaya
, Cécile Agosta
, Rebecca Baiman
, J. E. Barrett
, Léonard Barthelemy
, Burcu Boza
, Deniz Bozkurt
, Mathieu Casado
, Anastasiia Chyhareva
, Kyle R. Clem
, Francis Codron
, Rajashree Tri Datta
, Claudio Durán-Alarcón
, Diana Francis
, Andrew O. Hoffman
, Marlen Kolbe
, Svitlana Krakovska
, Gabrielle Linscott

Michelle L. Maclennan, Kyle S. Mattingly, Ye Mu, Benjamin Pohl, Christophe Leroy Dos Santos, Christine A. Shields, Emir Toker, Andrew C. Winters, Ziqi Yin, Xun Zou, Chen Zhang, Zhenhai Zhang

Earth System Predictability

Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zurich
CNRS
University of Porto
Université Versailles St-Quentin
University of Colorado Boulder
Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University
Sorbonne Université
Istanbul Technical University
Universidad de Valparaíso
Universidad de Concepción
Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Institute
National Antarctic Scientific Center Of Ukraine
Victoria University of Wellington
Delft University of Technology
Khalifa University of Science and Technology
Columbia University
University of Groningen
University of Maryland, College Park
University of Wisconsin-Madison
University of California at Santa Barbara
Université de Bourgogne
National Center for Atmospheric Research
University of California at San Diego

Research output: Contribution to journal › Review article › peer-review

22 Scopus citations

Abstract

Antarctic atmospheric rivers (ARs) are a form of extreme weather that transport heat and moisture from the Southern Hemisphere subtropics and/or mid-latitudes to the Antarctic continent. Present-day AR events generally have a positive influence on the Antarctic ice-sheet mass balance by producing heavy snowfall, yet they also cause melt of sea ice and coastal ice sheet areas, as well as ice shelf destabilization. In this Review, we explore the atmospheric dynamics and impacts of Antarctic ARs over their life cycle to better understand their net contributions to ice-sheet mass balance. ARs occur in high-amplitude pressure couplets, and those strong enough to reach the Antarctic are often formed within Rossby waves initiated by tropical convection. Antarctic ARs are rare events (~3 days per year per location) but have been responsible for 50–70% of extreme snowfall events in East Antarctica since the 1980s. However, they can also trigger extensive surface melting events, such as the final ice shelf collapse of Larsen A in 1995 and Larsen B in 2002. Climate change will likely cause stronger ARs as anthropogenic warming increases atmospheric water vapour. Future research must determine how these climate change impacts will alter the relationship among Antarctic ARs, net ice-sheet mass balance and future sea-level rise.

Original language	English
Article number	e2020JD033788
Pages (from-to)	178-192
Number of pages	15
Journal	Nature Reviews Earth and Environment
Volume	6
Issue number	3
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-024-00638-7
State	Published - Feb 11 2025

Funding

J.D.W. acknowledges support from the Horizon 2020 project nextGEMS under grant agreement number 101003470. K.S.M. acknowledges support from the Polar Radiant Energy in the Far InfraRed Experiment (PREFIRE) mission, NASA grant 80NSSC18K1485. X.Z. acknowledges support from NSF Grants 2229392. Y.M. was supported by the NASA Future Investigators in NASA Earth and Space Science and Technology programme (award number 80NSSC24K0012). J.E.B. was supported by the National Science Foundation for Long Term Ecological Research number OPP-2224760. C.A.S. acknowledges support by the Regional and Global Model Analysis (RGMA) component of the Earth and Environmental System Modeling Program of the US Department of Energy's Office of Biological & Environmental Research (BER) under Award Number DE-SC0022070, as well as National Center for Atmospheric Research, sponsored by NSF, under Cooperative Agreement Number 1852977. K.R.C. acknowledges support from the Royal Society of New Zealand Marsden Fund grant MFP-VUW2010. G.L. was supported by the National Defense Science and Engineering Graduate (NDSEG) Fellowship programme. A.C.W. and R.B. acknowledge financial support from the University of Colorado Boulder. M.L.M. acknowledges support from NASA grant 80NSSC21K1610 and the University of Colorado Boulder. I.V.G. thanks the support by the strategic funding to CIIMAR (UIDB/04423/2020 and UIDP/04423/2020), 2021.03140.CEECIND, projects ATLACE (CIRCNA/CAC/0273/2019), MAPS (2022.09201.PTDC) and Portuguese Polar Program (PROPOLAR) through national funds provided by FCT (Fundac & atilde;o para a Ciencia e a Tecnologia). D.B. acknowledges support from ANID-FONDECYT-1240190, ANID-FONDAP-1523A0002 and COPAS COASTAL ANID FB210021. A.C. and S.K. acknowledge funding support from the Ukrainian State Special-Purpose Research Program in Antarctica for 2011-2022, research direction: Hydrometeorology; and they express their gratitude to their Ukrainian polar science coworkers known as the 'Squad of Combat Penguins'.

Funders	Funder number
Horizon 2020 project nextGEMS
Polar Radiant Energy in the Far InfraRed Experiment (PREFIRE) mission, NASA
NSF
NASA Future Investigators in NASA Earth and Space Science and Technology programme
National Science Foundation for Long Term Ecological Research
Regional and Global Model Analysis (RGMA) component of the Earth and Environmental System Modeling Program of the US Department of Energy's Office of Biological & Environmental Research (BER)
National Center for Atmospheric Research - NSF	1852977
Royal Society of New Zealand Marsden Fund	MFP-VUW2010
National Defense Science and Engineering Graduate (NDSEG) Fellowship programme
Ukrainian State Special-Purpose Research Program in Antarctica
University of Colorado Boulder
NASA	80NSSC21K1610
FCT (Fundaco para a Ciencia e a Tecnologia)	UIDB/04423/2020, UIDP/04423/2020, 2021.03140.CEECIND, CIRCNA/CAC/0273/2019, 2022.09201.PTDC
ANID-FONDECYT	1240190, 1523A0002
COPAS COASTAL ANID	FB210021
???publication-publication-funding-organisation-not-added???	101003470
???publication-publication-funding-organisation-not-added???	80NSSC18K1485
???publication-publication-funding-organisation-not-added???	2229392
???publication-publication-funding-organisation-not-added???	80NSSC24K0012
???publication-publication-funding-organisation-not-added???	OPP-2224760
???publication-publication-funding-organisation-not-added???	DE-SC0022070

Keywords

Surface mass-balance
Ice shelves
Extratropical cyclones
Snow accumulation
African rainfall
Air-temperature
Sea-ice
Dome c
Climate
Scale

Access to Document

10.1038/s43017-024-00638-7

Cite this

Wille, J. D., Favier, V., Gorodetskaya, I. V., Agosta, C., Baiman, R., Barrett, J. E., Barthelemy, L., Boza, B., Bozkurt, D., Casado, M., Chyhareva, A., Clem, K. R., Codron, F., Datta, R. T., Durán-Alarcón, C., Francis, D., Hoffman, A. O., Kolbe, M., Krakovska, S., ... Zhang, Z. (2025). Atmospheric rivers in Antarctica. Nature Reviews Earth and Environment, 6(3), 178-192. Article e2020JD033788. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-024-00638-7

@article{0638de15ccbb44e9bd04759a4c065941,

title = "Atmospheric rivers in Antarctica",

abstract = "Antarctic atmospheric rivers (ARs) are a form of extreme weather that transport heat and moisture from the Southern Hemisphere subtropics and/or mid-latitudes to the Antarctic continent. Present-day AR events generally have a positive influence on the Antarctic ice-sheet mass balance by producing heavy snowfall, yet they also cause melt of sea ice and coastal ice sheet areas, as well as ice shelf destabilization. In this Review, we explore the atmospheric dynamics and impacts of Antarctic ARs over their life cycle to better understand their net contributions to ice-sheet mass balance. ARs occur in high-amplitude pressure couplets, and those strong enough to reach the Antarctic are often formed within Rossby waves initiated by tropical convection. Antarctic ARs are rare events (\textasciitilde{}3 days per year per location) but have been responsible for 50–70\% of extreme snowfall events in East Antarctica since the 1980s. However, they can also trigger extensive surface melting events, such as the final ice shelf collapse of Larsen A in 1995 and Larsen B in 2002. Climate change will likely cause stronger ARs as anthropogenic warming increases atmospheric water vapour. Future research must determine how these climate change impacts will alter the relationship among Antarctic ARs, net ice-sheet mass balance and future sea-level rise.",

keywords = "Surface mass-balance, Ice shelves, Extratropical cyclones, Snow accumulation, African rainfall, Air-temperature, Sea-ice, Dome c, Climate, Scale",

author = "Wille, \{Jonathan D.\} and Vincent Favier and Gorodetskaya, \{Irina V.\} and C{\'e}cile Agosta and Rebecca Baiman and Barrett, \{J. E.\} and L{\'e}onard Barthelemy and Burcu Boza and Deniz Bozkurt and Mathieu Casado and Anastasiia Chyhareva and Clem, \{Kyle R.\} and Francis Codron and Datta, \{Rajashree Tri\} and Claudio Dur{\'a}n-Alarc{\'o}n and Diana Francis and Hoffman, \{Andrew O.\} and Marlen Kolbe and Svitlana Krakovska and Gabrielle Linscott and Maclennan, \{Michelle L.\} and Mattingly, \{Kyle S.\} and Ye Mu and Benjamin Pohl and Santos, \{Christophe Leroy Dos\} and Shields, \{Christine A.\} and Emir Toker and Winters, \{Andrew C.\} and Ziqi Yin and Xun Zou and Chen Zhang and Zhenhai Zhang",

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doi = "10.1038/s43017-024-00638-7",

language = "English",

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Wille, JD, Favier, V, Gorodetskaya, IV, Agosta, C, Baiman, R, Barrett, JE, Barthelemy, L, Boza, B, Bozkurt, D, Casado, M, Chyhareva, A, Clem, KR, Codron, F, Datta, RT, Durán-Alarcón, C, Francis, D, Hoffman, AO, Kolbe, M, Krakovska, S, Linscott, G, Maclennan, ML, Mattingly, KS, Mu, Y, Pohl, B, Santos, CLD, Shields, CA, Toker, E, Winters, AC, Yin, Z, Zou, X, Zhang, C & Zhang, Z 2025, 'Atmospheric rivers in Antarctica', Nature Reviews Earth and Environment, vol. 6, no. 3, e2020JD033788, pp. 178-192. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-024-00638-7

TY - JOUR

T1 - Atmospheric rivers in Antarctica

AU - Wille, Jonathan D.

AU - Favier, Vincent

AU - Gorodetskaya, Irina V.

AU - Agosta, Cécile

AU - Baiman, Rebecca

AU - Barrett, J. E.

AU - Barthelemy, Léonard

AU - Boza, Burcu

AU - Bozkurt, Deniz

AU - Casado, Mathieu

AU - Chyhareva, Anastasiia

AU - Clem, Kyle R.

AU - Codron, Francis

AU - Datta, Rajashree Tri

AU - Durán-Alarcón, Claudio

AU - Francis, Diana

AU - Hoffman, Andrew O.

AU - Kolbe, Marlen

AU - Krakovska, Svitlana

AU - Linscott, Gabrielle

AU - Maclennan, Michelle L.

AU - Mattingly, Kyle S.

AU - Mu, Ye

AU - Pohl, Benjamin

AU - Santos, Christophe Leroy Dos

AU - Shields, Christine A.

AU - Toker, Emir

AU - Winters, Andrew C.

AU - Yin, Ziqi

AU - Zou, Xun

AU - Zhang, Chen

AU - Zhang, Zhenhai

PY - 2025/2/11

Y1 - 2025/2/11

N2 - Antarctic atmospheric rivers (ARs) are a form of extreme weather that transport heat and moisture from the Southern Hemisphere subtropics and/or mid-latitudes to the Antarctic continent. Present-day AR events generally have a positive influence on the Antarctic ice-sheet mass balance by producing heavy snowfall, yet they also cause melt of sea ice and coastal ice sheet areas, as well as ice shelf destabilization. In this Review, we explore the atmospheric dynamics and impacts of Antarctic ARs over their life cycle to better understand their net contributions to ice-sheet mass balance. ARs occur in high-amplitude pressure couplets, and those strong enough to reach the Antarctic are often formed within Rossby waves initiated by tropical convection. Antarctic ARs are rare events (~3 days per year per location) but have been responsible for 50–70% of extreme snowfall events in East Antarctica since the 1980s. However, they can also trigger extensive surface melting events, such as the final ice shelf collapse of Larsen A in 1995 and Larsen B in 2002. Climate change will likely cause stronger ARs as anthropogenic warming increases atmospheric water vapour. Future research must determine how these climate change impacts will alter the relationship among Antarctic ARs, net ice-sheet mass balance and future sea-level rise.

AB - Antarctic atmospheric rivers (ARs) are a form of extreme weather that transport heat and moisture from the Southern Hemisphere subtropics and/or mid-latitudes to the Antarctic continent. Present-day AR events generally have a positive influence on the Antarctic ice-sheet mass balance by producing heavy snowfall, yet they also cause melt of sea ice and coastal ice sheet areas, as well as ice shelf destabilization. In this Review, we explore the atmospheric dynamics and impacts of Antarctic ARs over their life cycle to better understand their net contributions to ice-sheet mass balance. ARs occur in high-amplitude pressure couplets, and those strong enough to reach the Antarctic are often formed within Rossby waves initiated by tropical convection. Antarctic ARs are rare events (~3 days per year per location) but have been responsible for 50–70% of extreme snowfall events in East Antarctica since the 1980s. However, they can also trigger extensive surface melting events, such as the final ice shelf collapse of Larsen A in 1995 and Larsen B in 2002. Climate change will likely cause stronger ARs as anthropogenic warming increases atmospheric water vapour. Future research must determine how these climate change impacts will alter the relationship among Antarctic ARs, net ice-sheet mass balance and future sea-level rise.

KW - Surface mass-balance

KW - Ice shelves

KW - Extratropical cyclones

KW - Snow accumulation

KW - African rainfall

KW - Air-temperature

KW - Sea-ice

KW - Dome c

KW - Climate

KW - Scale

UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/85217521310

U2 - 10.1038/s43017-024-00638-7

DO - 10.1038/s43017-024-00638-7

M3 - Review article

AN - SCOPUS:85217521310

SN - 2662-138X

VL - 6

SP - 178

EP - 192

JO - Nature Reviews Earth and Environment

JF - Nature Reviews Earth and Environment

IS - 3

M1 - e2020JD033788

ER -

Atmospheric rivers in Antarctica

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