Australian east-coast cyclones. Part II: numerical modeling study

We show that the development can be forecast successfully with the current Australian limited-area prediction model, but that high resolution is needed to capture fully the intensity, structure and track of the system. We show also that both large- and small-scale processes contribute to the development of the east-coast cyclone. Large-scale moist baroclinic processes provide the favorable environment and initial development of a weak, synoptic-scale cyclone. Subsequent development of the intense, mesoscale system requires convective release of latent heat, local orographic forcing, and high resolution surface energy fluxes. -from Authors