Causes and consequences of Arctic amplification elucidated by coordinated multimodel experiments

James A. Screen; Alexandre Audette; Russell Blackport; Clara Deser; Mark England; Nicole Feldl; Melissa Gervais; Stephanie Hay; Paul J. Kushner; Yu Chiao Liang; Rym Msadek; Regan Mudhar; Michael Sigmond; Doug Smith; Lantao Sun; Hao Yu

doi:10.1038/s43247-025-03052-z

Causes and consequences of Arctic amplification elucidated by coordinated multimodel experiments

James A. Screen
, Alexandre Audette
, Russell Blackport
, Clara Deser
, Mark England
, Nicole Feldl
, Melissa Gervais
, Stephanie Hay
, Paul J. Kushner
, Yu Chiao Liang
, Rym Msadek
, Regan Mudhar
, Michael Sigmond
, Doug Smith
, Lantao Sun
, Hao Yu

University of Exeter
University of California at Santa Cruz
Université Laval and Environment and Climate Change Canada
National Center for Atmospheric Research
Pennsylvania State University
University of Toronto
National Taiwan University
Paul Sabatier University
Met Office
Colorado State University

Research output: Contribution to journal › Review article › peer-review

1 Scopus citations

Abstract

Human-induced warming is amplified in the Arctic, but its causes and consequences are not precisely known. Here, we review scientific advances facilitated by the Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project. Surface heat flux changes and feedbacks triggered by sea-ice loss are critical to explain the magnitude and seasonality of Arctic amplification. Tropospheric responses to Arctic sea-ice loss that are robust across models and separable from internal variability have been revealed, including local warming and moistening, equatorward shifts of the jet stream and storm track in the North Atlantic, and fewer and milder cold extremes over North America. Whilst generally small compared to simulated internal variability, the response to Arctic sea-ice loss comprises a non-negligible contribution to projected climate change. For example, Arctic sea-ice loss is essential to explain projected North Atlantic jet trends and their uncertainty. Model diversity in the simulated responses has provided pathways to observationally constrain the real-world response.

Original language	English
Article number	23
Number of pages	12
Journal	Communications Earth and Environment
Volume	7
Issue number	1
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-03052-z
State	Published - Dec 6 2025
Externally published	Yes

Funding

Matt Jenkins is thanked for providing Fig. 2. We thank the modelling groups that have contributed to the PAMIP, and the Earth System Grid Federation (https://esgf.github.io) for providing the infrastructure for data storage and sharing. This work used JASMIN, the UK's collaborative data analysis environment (https://www.jasmin.ac.uk). J.A.S. and S.H. were supported by the NERC ArctiCONNECT project (NE/V005855/1). C.D. was supported by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), which is sponsored by the National Science Foundation under Cooperative Agreement 1852977. M.E. was supported by the Royal Commission for the Exhibition of 1851 research fellowship. N.F. was supported by NSF Grant AGS-1753034. P.K. acknowledges support from the grant NSF PHY-2309135 to the Kavli Institute for Theoretical Physics (KITP). Y.-C.L. was supported by the National Science and Technology Council (113-2628-M-002-018 and 113-2116-M-008-024). R.M. is funded by a NERC GW4+ Doctoral Training Partnership studentship (NE/S007504/1). D.S. was supported by the Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme funded by DSIT. L.S. was supported by NSF Grant AGS-2300038. H.Y. was supported by the Chinese Scholarship Council. We thank three anonymous reviewers for their constructive feedback.

Funders	Funder number
RCUK \| Natural Environment Research Council (NERC)	NE/V005855/1

Keywords

Sea-ice loss
Atmospheric response
Polar amplification
Minimal influence
Jet-stream
Models
Robust

Access to Document

10.1038/s43247-025-03052-z

Cite this

Screen, J. A., Audette, A., Blackport, R., Deser, C., England, M., Feldl, N., Gervais, M., Hay, S., Kushner, P. J., Liang, Y. C., Msadek, R., Mudhar, R., Sigmond, M., Smith, D., Sun, L., & Yu, H. (2025). Causes and consequences of Arctic amplification elucidated by coordinated multimodel experiments. Communications Earth and Environment, 7(1), Article 23. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-03052-z

@article{ee0c3837721d4c71b4bd38e04be03d98,

title = "Causes and consequences of Arctic amplification elucidated by coordinated multimodel experiments",

abstract = "Human-induced warming is amplified in the Arctic, but its causes and consequences are not precisely known. Here, we review scientific advances facilitated by the Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project. Surface heat flux changes and feedbacks triggered by sea-ice loss are critical to explain the magnitude and seasonality of Arctic amplification. Tropospheric responses to Arctic sea-ice loss that are robust across models and separable from internal variability have been revealed, including local warming and moistening, equatorward shifts of the jet stream and storm track in the North Atlantic, and fewer and milder cold extremes over North America. Whilst generally small compared to simulated internal variability, the response to Arctic sea-ice loss comprises a non-negligible contribution to projected climate change. For example, Arctic sea-ice loss is essential to explain projected North Atlantic jet trends and their uncertainty. Model diversity in the simulated responses has provided pathways to observationally constrain the real-world response.",

keywords = "Sea-ice loss, Atmospheric response, Polar amplification, Minimal influence, Jet-stream, Models, Robust",

author = "Screen, \{James A.\} and Alexandre Audette and Russell Blackport and Clara Deser and Mark England and Nicole Feldl and Melissa Gervais and Stephanie Hay and Kushner, \{Paul J.\} and Liang, \{Yu Chiao\} and Rym Msadek and Regan Mudhar and Michael Sigmond and Doug Smith and Lantao Sun and Hao Yu",

note = "Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} The Author(s) 2025.",

year = "2025",

month = dec,

day = "6",

doi = "10.1038/s43247-025-03052-z",

language = "English",

volume = "7",

journal = "Communications Earth and Environment",

issn = "2662-4435",

publisher = "Springer Nature",

number = "1",

}

Screen, JA, Audette, A, Blackport, R, Deser, C, England, M, Feldl, N, Gervais, M, Hay, S, Kushner, PJ, Liang, YC, Msadek, R, Mudhar, R, Sigmond, M, Smith, D, Sun, L & Yu, H 2025, 'Causes and consequences of Arctic amplification elucidated by coordinated multimodel experiments', Communications Earth and Environment, vol. 7, no. 1, 23. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-03052-z

TY - JOUR

T1 - Causes and consequences of Arctic amplification elucidated by coordinated multimodel experiments

AU - Screen, James A.

AU - Audette, Alexandre

AU - Blackport, Russell

AU - Deser, Clara

AU - England, Mark

AU - Feldl, Nicole

AU - Gervais, Melissa

AU - Hay, Stephanie

AU - Kushner, Paul J.

AU - Liang, Yu Chiao

AU - Msadek, Rym

AU - Mudhar, Regan

AU - Sigmond, Michael

AU - Smith, Doug

AU - Sun, Lantao

AU - Yu, Hao

PY - 2025/12/6

Y1 - 2025/12/6

N2 - Human-induced warming is amplified in the Arctic, but its causes and consequences are not precisely known. Here, we review scientific advances facilitated by the Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project. Surface heat flux changes and feedbacks triggered by sea-ice loss are critical to explain the magnitude and seasonality of Arctic amplification. Tropospheric responses to Arctic sea-ice loss that are robust across models and separable from internal variability have been revealed, including local warming and moistening, equatorward shifts of the jet stream and storm track in the North Atlantic, and fewer and milder cold extremes over North America. Whilst generally small compared to simulated internal variability, the response to Arctic sea-ice loss comprises a non-negligible contribution to projected climate change. For example, Arctic sea-ice loss is essential to explain projected North Atlantic jet trends and their uncertainty. Model diversity in the simulated responses has provided pathways to observationally constrain the real-world response.

AB - Human-induced warming is amplified in the Arctic, but its causes and consequences are not precisely known. Here, we review scientific advances facilitated by the Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project. Surface heat flux changes and feedbacks triggered by sea-ice loss are critical to explain the magnitude and seasonality of Arctic amplification. Tropospheric responses to Arctic sea-ice loss that are robust across models and separable from internal variability have been revealed, including local warming and moistening, equatorward shifts of the jet stream and storm track in the North Atlantic, and fewer and milder cold extremes over North America. Whilst generally small compared to simulated internal variability, the response to Arctic sea-ice loss comprises a non-negligible contribution to projected climate change. For example, Arctic sea-ice loss is essential to explain projected North Atlantic jet trends and their uncertainty. Model diversity in the simulated responses has provided pathways to observationally constrain the real-world response.

KW - Sea-ice loss

KW - Atmospheric response

KW - Polar amplification

KW - Minimal influence

KW - Jet-stream

KW - Models

KW - Robust

UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/105027163910

U2 - 10.1038/s43247-025-03052-z

DO - 10.1038/s43247-025-03052-z

M3 - Review article

AN - SCOPUS:105027163910

SN - 2662-4435

VL - 7

JO - Communications Earth and Environment

JF - Communications Earth and Environment

IS - 1

M1 - 23

ER -

Causes and consequences of Arctic amplification elucidated by coordinated multimodel experiments

Abstract

Funding

Keywords

Access to Document

Other files and links

Fingerprint

Cite this