Closing the Gap—Hurricane Prediction Advances in the U.S. FV3-Based Models

The Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) developed by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) has been regarded as the best guidance for hurricane track forecasts for years. However, the performance of U.S. models on hurricane forecasts has been catching up. Since 2019, various Finite-Volume Cubed-Sphere Dynamical Core (FV3)-based models, including the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) operational Global Forecast System (GFS), newly operational Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS), and research-oriented Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) System for High-resolution prediction on Earth-to-Local Domains (SHiELD), have consistently demonstrated improved hurricane forecasts in the North Atlantic basin, relative to the previous generation of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) operational and research models. This article presents the progress that has been made and identifies areas for improvement for U.S. model development on hurricane forecasts.