Contribution of land surface initialization to subseasonal forecast skill: First results from a multi-model experiment

R. D. Koster; S. P.P. Mahanama; T. J. Yamada; Gianpaolo Balsamo; A. A. Berg; M. Boisserie; P. A. Dirmeyer; F. J. Doblas-Reyes; G. Drewitt; C. T. Gordon; Z. Guo; J. H. Jeong; D. M. Lawrence; W. S. Lee; Z. Li; L. Luo; S. Malyshev; W. J. Merryfield; S. I. Seneviratne; T. Stanelle; B. J.J.M. Van Den Hurk; F. Vitart; E. F. Wood

doi:10.1029/2009GL041677

Contribution of land surface initialization to subseasonal forecast skill: First results from a multi-model experiment

R. D. Koster
, S. P.P. Mahanama
, T. J. Yamada
, Gianpaolo Balsamo
, A. A. Berg
, M. Boisserie
, P. A. Dirmeyer
, F. J. Doblas-Reyes
, G. Drewitt
, C. T. Gordon
, Z. Guo
, J. H. Jeong
, D. M. Lawrence
, W. S. Lee
, Z. Li
, L. Luo
, S. Malyshev
, W. J. Merryfield
, S. I. Seneviratne
, T. Stanelle

B. J.J.M. Van Den Hurk, F. Vitart, E. F. Wood

CGD

NASA Goddard Space Flight Center
University of Maryland, College Park
Hokkaido University
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
University of Guelph
Florida State University
George Mason University
ICREA
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
University of Gothenburg
Université Laval and Environment and Climate Change Canada
SAIC
Michigan State University
Princeton University
Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zurich
Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

370 Scopus citations

Abstract

The second phase of the Global Land-Atmosphereb Coupling Experiment (GLACE-2) is aimed at quantifying, with a suite of long-range forecast systems, the degree to which realistic land surface initialization contributes to the skill of subseasonal precipitation and air temperature forecasts. Results, which focus here on North America, show significant contributions to temperature prediction skill out to two months across large portions of the continent. For precipitation forecasts, contributions to skill are much weaker but are still significant out to 45 days in some locations. Skill levels increase markedly when calculations are conditioned on the magnitude of the initial soil moisture anomaly.

Original language	English
Article number	L02402
Journal	Geophysical Research Letters
Volume	37
Issue number	2
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL041677
State	Published - Jan 2010

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Koster, R. D., Mahanama, S. P. P., Yamada, T. J., Balsamo, G., Berg, A. A., Boisserie, M., Dirmeyer, P. A., Doblas-Reyes, F. J., Drewitt, G., Gordon, C. T., Guo, Z., Jeong, J. H., Lawrence, D. M., Lee, W. S., Li, Z., Luo, L., Malyshev, S., Merryfield, W. J., Seneviratne, S. I., ... Wood, E. F. (2010). Contribution of land surface initialization to subseasonal forecast skill: First results from a multi-model experiment. Geophysical Research Letters, 37(2), Article L02402. https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL041677

@article{09c8c84e62ae487b844086441833542a,

title = "Contribution of land surface initialization to subseasonal forecast skill: First results from a multi-model experiment",

abstract = "The second phase of the Global Land-Atmosphereb Coupling Experiment (GLACE-2) is aimed at quantifying, with a suite of long-range forecast systems, the degree to which realistic land surface initialization contributes to the skill of subseasonal precipitation and air temperature forecasts. Results, which focus here on North America, show significant contributions to temperature prediction skill out to two months across large portions of the continent. For precipitation forecasts, contributions to skill are much weaker but are still significant out to 45 days in some locations. Skill levels increase markedly when calculations are conditioned on the magnitude of the initial soil moisture anomaly.",

author = "Koster, \{R. D.\} and Mahanama, \{S. P.P.\} and Yamada, \{T. J.\} and Gianpaolo Balsamo and Berg, \{A. A.\} and M. Boisserie and Dirmeyer, \{P. A.\} and Doblas-Reyes, \{F. J.\} and G. Drewitt and Gordon, \{C. T.\} and Z. Guo and Jeong, \{J. H.\} and Lawrence, \{D. M.\} and Lee, \{W. S.\} and Z. Li and L. Luo and S. Malyshev and Merryfield, \{W. J.\} and Seneviratne, \{S. I.\} and T. Stanelle and \{Van Den Hurk\}, \{B. J.J.M.\} and F. Vitart and Wood, \{E. F.\}",

year = "2010",

month = jan,

doi = "10.1029/2009GL041677",

language = "English",

volume = "37",

journal = "Geophysical Research Letters",

issn = "0094-8276",

publisher = "John Wiley and Sons Inc.",

number = "2",

}

Koster, RD, Mahanama, SPP, Yamada, TJ, Balsamo, G, Berg, AA, Boisserie, M, Dirmeyer, PA, Doblas-Reyes, FJ, Drewitt, G, Gordon, CT, Guo, Z, Jeong, JH, Lawrence, DM, Lee, WS, Li, Z, Luo, L, Malyshev, S, Merryfield, WJ, Seneviratne, SI, Stanelle, T, Van Den Hurk, BJJM, Vitart, F & Wood, EF 2010, 'Contribution of land surface initialization to subseasonal forecast skill: First results from a multi-model experiment', Geophysical Research Letters, vol. 37, no. 2, L02402. https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL041677

TY - JOUR

T1 - Contribution of land surface initialization to subseasonal forecast skill

T2 - First results from a multi-model experiment

AU - Koster, R. D.

AU - Mahanama, S. P.P.

AU - Yamada, T. J.

AU - Balsamo, Gianpaolo

AU - Berg, A. A.

AU - Boisserie, M.

AU - Dirmeyer, P. A.

AU - Doblas-Reyes, F. J.

AU - Drewitt, G.

AU - Gordon, C. T.

AU - Guo, Z.

AU - Jeong, J. H.

AU - Lawrence, D. M.

AU - Lee, W. S.

AU - Li, Z.

AU - Luo, L.

AU - Malyshev, S.

AU - Merryfield, W. J.

AU - Seneviratne, S. I.

AU - Stanelle, T.

AU - Van Den Hurk, B. J.J.M.

AU - Vitart, F.

AU - Wood, E. F.

PY - 2010/1

Y1 - 2010/1

N2 - The second phase of the Global Land-Atmosphereb Coupling Experiment (GLACE-2) is aimed at quantifying, with a suite of long-range forecast systems, the degree to which realistic land surface initialization contributes to the skill of subseasonal precipitation and air temperature forecasts. Results, which focus here on North America, show significant contributions to temperature prediction skill out to two months across large portions of the continent. For precipitation forecasts, contributions to skill are much weaker but are still significant out to 45 days in some locations. Skill levels increase markedly when calculations are conditioned on the magnitude of the initial soil moisture anomaly.

AB - The second phase of the Global Land-Atmosphereb Coupling Experiment (GLACE-2) is aimed at quantifying, with a suite of long-range forecast systems, the degree to which realistic land surface initialization contributes to the skill of subseasonal precipitation and air temperature forecasts. Results, which focus here on North America, show significant contributions to temperature prediction skill out to two months across large portions of the continent. For precipitation forecasts, contributions to skill are much weaker but are still significant out to 45 days in some locations. Skill levels increase markedly when calculations are conditioned on the magnitude of the initial soil moisture anomaly.

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U2 - 10.1029/2009GL041677

DO - 10.1029/2009GL041677

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JO - Geophysical Research Letters

JF - Geophysical Research Letters

IS - 2

M1 - L02402

ER -

Contribution of land surface initialization to subseasonal forecast skill: First results from a multi-model experiment

Abstract

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