Coupled atmosphere–ocean data assimilation experiments with a low-order model and CMIP5 model data

Coupled atmosphere–ocean data assimilation (DA) experiments are performed for estimating the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). Recovery of the AMOC with an ensemble Kalman filter is assessed for a range of experiments over observation availability (atmosphere, upper and deep ocean) and for assimilating high-frequency observations compared to time averages. For an idealised low-order coupled climate model, the traditional DA approach using an ensemble of model trajectories to estimate covariances is compared to a simplified “no-cycling” approach involving climatological covariances derived from a single long model integration. Robustness of the no-cycling method is also tested on data from a millennial-scale simulation of a comprehensive coupled atmosphere–ocean climate model. Results show that the no-cycling approach provides a good approximation to the traditional approach, and that assimilation of time-averaged observations improves AMOC recovery using drastically smaller ensembles than would be required for the case of instantaneous observations. Even in the limit of no ocean observations, the no-cycling approach is capable of recovering the low-frequency AMOC with time-averaged observations; assimilation of noisy instantaneous atmospheric observations fails to recover decadal-scale AMOC variability.