Coupled model simulation of a Sun-to-Earth space weather event

This paper describes the 3D simulation of a space weather event using the coupled model approach adopted by the Center for Integrated Space Weather Modeling (CISM). The simulation employs corona, solar wind, and magnetosphere MHD models, and an upper atmosphere/ionosphere fluid dynamic model, with interfaces that exchange parameters specifying each component of the connected solar terrestrial system. A hypothetical coronal mass ejection is launched from the Sun by a process emulating photospheric field changes such as are observed with solar magnetographs. The associated ejected magnetic flux rope propagates into a realistically structured solar wind, producing a leading interplanetary shock, sheath, and magnetic cloud. These reach 1 AU where the solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field parameters are used to drive the magnetosphere-ionosphere-thermosphere coupled model in the same manner as upstream in situ measurements. The simulated magnetosphere responds with a magnetic storm, producing enhanced convection and auroral energy inputs to the upper atmosphere/ionosphere. These results demonstrate the potential for future studies using a modular, systemic numerical modeling approach to space weather research and forecasting.