Decadal climate predictability and prediction: Where are we?

The eighth workshop on decadal climate variability (DCV), held on October 12-15, 2009, St. Michaels, Maryland, discussed strategies to better understand and predict decadal climate variability. Idealized studies suggest that some states of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), such as extremes and transitions from a weak to a strong state, may be more predictable. Experiments also show that the initialization of decadal climate predictions by three-dimensional (3D) temperature and salinity fields may provide skill in some regions up to a decade in advance, particularly over the North Atlantic and North Pacific Oceans. Based on initial predictability and prediction studies, workshop participants identified better characterization and mechanistic understanding of decadal climate variability and sustained global ocean observations.