Decadal climate variability in the tropical Pacific: Characteristics, causes, predictability, and prospects

Scott Power; Matthieu Lengaigne; Antonietta Capotondi; Myriam Khodri; Jérôme Vialard; Beyrem Jebri; Eric Guilyardi; Shayne McGregor; Jong Seong Kug; Matthew Newman; Michael J. McPhaden; Gerald Meehl; Doug Smith; Julia Cole; Julien Emile-Geay; Daniel Vimont; Andrew T. Wittenberg; Mat Collins; Geon Il Kim; Wenju Cai; Yuko Okumura; Christine Chung; Kim M. Cobb; François Delage; Yann Y. Planton; Aaron Levine; Feng Zhu; Janet Sprintall; Emanuele Di Lorenzo; Xuebin Zhang; Jing Jia Luo; Xiaopei Lin; Magdalena Balmaseda; Guojian Wang; Benjamin J. Henley

doi:10.1126/science.aay9165

Decadal climate variability in the tropical Pacific: Characteristics, causes, predictability, and prospects

Scott Power
, Matthieu Lengaigne
, Antonietta Capotondi
, Myriam Khodri
, Jérôme Vialard
, Beyrem Jebri
, Eric Guilyardi
, Shayne McGregor
, Jong Seong Kug
, Matthew Newman
, Michael J. McPhaden
, Gerald Meehl
, Doug Smith
, Julia Cole
, Julien Emile-Geay
, Daniel Vimont
, Andrew T. Wittenberg
, Mat Collins
, Geon Il Kim
, Wenju Cai

Yuko Okumura, Christine Chung, Kim M. Cobb, François Delage, Yann Y. Planton, Aaron Levine, Feng Zhu, Janet Sprintall, Emanuele Di Lorenzo, Xuebin Zhang, Jing Jia Luo, Xiaopei Lin, Magdalena Balmaseda, Guojian Wang, Benjamin J. Henley

CGD

University of Queensland
Monash University
Université de Montpellier
University of Colorado Boulder
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Sorbonne Université
University of Reading
Pohang University of Science and Technology
NOAA–Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory
Met Office
University of Michigan, Ann Arbor
University of Southern California
University of Wisconsin-Madison
University of Exeter
CSIRO
Ocean University of China
Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology
University of Texas at Austin
Bureau of Meteorology Australia
Georgia Institute of Technology
University of California at San Diego
Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts

Research output: Contribution to journal › Review article › peer-review

195 Scopus citations

Abstract

Climate variability in the tropical Pacific affects global climate on a wide range of time scales. On interannual time scales, the tropical Pacific is home to the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Decadal variations and changes in the tropical Pacific, referred to here collectively as tropical Pacific decadal variability (TPDV), also profoundly affect the climate system. Here, we use TPDV to refer to any form of decadal climate variability or change that occurs in the atmosphere, the ocean, and over land within the tropical Pacific. “Decadal,” which we use in a broad sense to encompass multiyear through multidecadal time scales, includes variability about the mean state on decadal time scales, externally forced mean-state changes that unfold on decadal time scales, and decadal variations in the behavior of higher-frequency modes like ENSO.

Original language	English
Article number	eaay9165
Journal	Science
Volume	374
Issue number	6563
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aay9165
State	Published - Oct 1 2021

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Power, S., Lengaigne, M., Capotondi, A., Khodri, M., Vialard, J., Jebri, B., Guilyardi, E., McGregor, S., Kug, J. S., Newman, M., McPhaden, M. J., Meehl, G., Smith, D., Cole, J., Emile-Geay, J., Vimont, D., Wittenberg, A. T., Collins, M., Kim, G. I., ... Henley, B. J. (2021). Decadal climate variability in the tropical Pacific: Characteristics, causes, predictability, and prospects. Science, 374(6563), Article eaay9165. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aay9165

@article{ee8956a52a7f451da12c9e0e0e1a1e72,

title = "Decadal climate variability in the tropical Pacific: Characteristics, causes, predictability, and prospects",

abstract = "Climate variability in the tropical Pacific affects global climate on a wide range of time scales. On interannual time scales, the tropical Pacific is home to the El Ni{\~n}o–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Decadal variations and changes in the tropical Pacific, referred to here collectively as tropical Pacific decadal variability (TPDV), also profoundly affect the climate system. Here, we use TPDV to refer to any form of decadal climate variability or change that occurs in the atmosphere, the ocean, and over land within the tropical Pacific. “Decadal,” which we use in a broad sense to encompass multiyear through multidecadal time scales, includes variability about the mean state on decadal time scales, externally forced mean-state changes that unfold on decadal time scales, and decadal variations in the behavior of higher-frequency modes like ENSO.",

author = "Scott Power and Matthieu Lengaigne and Antonietta Capotondi and Myriam Khodri and J{\'e}r{\^o}me Vialard and Beyrem Jebri and Eric Guilyardi and Shayne McGregor and Kug, \{Jong Seong\} and Matthew Newman and McPhaden, \{Michael J.\} and Gerald Meehl and Doug Smith and Julia Cole and Julien Emile-Geay and Daniel Vimont and Wittenberg, \{Andrew T.\} and Mat Collins and Kim, \{Geon Il\} and Wenju Cai and Yuko Okumura and Christine Chung and Cobb, \{Kim M.\} and Fran{\c c}ois Delage and Planton, \{Yann Y.\} and Aaron Levine and Feng Zhu and Janet Sprintall and \{Di Lorenzo\}, Emanuele and Xuebin Zhang and Luo, \{Jing Jia\} and Xiaopei Lin and Magdalena Balmaseda and Guojian Wang and Henley, \{Benjamin J.\}",

year = "2021",

month = oct,

day = "1",

doi = "10.1126/science.aay9165",

language = "English",

volume = "374",

journal = "Science",

issn = "0036-8075",

publisher = "American Association for the Advancement of Science",

number = "6563",

}

Power, S, Lengaigne, M, Capotondi, A, Khodri, M, Vialard, J, Jebri, B, Guilyardi, E, McGregor, S, Kug, JS, Newman, M, McPhaden, MJ, Meehl, G, Smith, D, Cole, J, Emile-Geay, J, Vimont, D, Wittenberg, AT, Collins, M, Kim, GI, Cai, W, Okumura, Y, Chung, C, Cobb, KM, Delage, F, Planton, YY, Levine, A, Zhu, F, Sprintall, J, Di Lorenzo, E, Zhang, X, Luo, JJ, Lin, X, Balmaseda, M, Wang, G & Henley, BJ 2021, 'Decadal climate variability in the tropical Pacific: Characteristics, causes, predictability, and prospects', Science, vol. 374, no. 6563, eaay9165. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aay9165

TY - JOUR

T1 - Decadal climate variability in the tropical Pacific

T2 - Characteristics, causes, predictability, and prospects

AU - Power, Scott

AU - Lengaigne, Matthieu

AU - Capotondi, Antonietta

AU - Khodri, Myriam

AU - Vialard, Jérôme

AU - Jebri, Beyrem

AU - Guilyardi, Eric

AU - McGregor, Shayne

AU - Kug, Jong Seong

AU - Newman, Matthew

AU - McPhaden, Michael J.

AU - Meehl, Gerald

AU - Smith, Doug

AU - Cole, Julia

AU - Emile-Geay, Julien

AU - Vimont, Daniel

AU - Wittenberg, Andrew T.

AU - Collins, Mat

AU - Kim, Geon Il

AU - Cai, Wenju

AU - Okumura, Yuko

AU - Chung, Christine

AU - Cobb, Kim M.

AU - Delage, François

AU - Planton, Yann Y.

AU - Levine, Aaron

AU - Zhu, Feng

AU - Sprintall, Janet

AU - Di Lorenzo, Emanuele

AU - Zhang, Xuebin

AU - Luo, Jing Jia

AU - Lin, Xiaopei

AU - Balmaseda, Magdalena

AU - Wang, Guojian

AU - Henley, Benjamin J.

PY - 2021/10/1

Y1 - 2021/10/1

N2 - Climate variability in the tropical Pacific affects global climate on a wide range of time scales. On interannual time scales, the tropical Pacific is home to the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Decadal variations and changes in the tropical Pacific, referred to here collectively as tropical Pacific decadal variability (TPDV), also profoundly affect the climate system. Here, we use TPDV to refer to any form of decadal climate variability or change that occurs in the atmosphere, the ocean, and over land within the tropical Pacific. “Decadal,” which we use in a broad sense to encompass multiyear through multidecadal time scales, includes variability about the mean state on decadal time scales, externally forced mean-state changes that unfold on decadal time scales, and decadal variations in the behavior of higher-frequency modes like ENSO.

AB - Climate variability in the tropical Pacific affects global climate on a wide range of time scales. On interannual time scales, the tropical Pacific is home to the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Decadal variations and changes in the tropical Pacific, referred to here collectively as tropical Pacific decadal variability (TPDV), also profoundly affect the climate system. Here, we use TPDV to refer to any form of decadal climate variability or change that occurs in the atmosphere, the ocean, and over land within the tropical Pacific. “Decadal,” which we use in a broad sense to encompass multiyear through multidecadal time scales, includes variability about the mean state on decadal time scales, externally forced mean-state changes that unfold on decadal time scales, and decadal variations in the behavior of higher-frequency modes like ENSO.

UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/85116369103

U2 - 10.1126/science.aay9165

DO - 10.1126/science.aay9165

M3 - Review article

C2 - 34591645

AN - SCOPUS:85116369103

SN - 0036-8075

VL - 374

JO - Science

JF - Science

IS - 6563

M1 - eaay9165

ER -

Decadal climate variability in the tropical Pacific: Characteristics, causes, predictability, and prospects

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