Distributed solar and net load forecasts for utilities

Accurate forecasts of a utility's electrical load-the power it provides to its customers-are important for the utility's energy production, distribution and trading operations. Recently, the growing penetration of customers' distributed solar power production "behind the meter" has begun to affect net load, reducing demand during sunny periods and increasing net load variability under rapidly changeable weather conditions. The National Center for Atmospheric Research has developed a forecast system that utilizes weather information and historical data to provide shortterm distributed solar cutout and net electrical load forecasts. The system utilizes forecasts of key meteorological variables from the NCAR-developed Dynamic Integrated foreCast (DICast®) system to produce hourly 0-168 hour load forecasts. An historical database of observed load, solar production, distributed solar installations, and weather variables is analyzed using statistical learning methods to create the forecast models. Such forecasts will facilitate utilities' integration of an increasing base of distributed solar installations.