Dynamic Contributions to Recent Observed Wintertime Precipitation Trends in Mediterranean-Type Climate Regions

Robert Doane-Solomon; Tim Woollings; Isla R. Simpson

doi:10.1029/2024GL114258

Dynamic Contributions to Recent Observed Wintertime Precipitation Trends in Mediterranean-Type Climate Regions

Robert Doane-Solomon, Tim Woollings, Isla R. Simpson

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

Abstract

Many Mediterranean-type climates (MCs) have experienced wintertime drying trends since 1979. Using a dynamical adjustment method, we separate the effects of circulation-induced drying trends from other residual trends. Our analysis reveals that circulation trends are the leading cause of the observed drying in Central Chile and the US Southwest, and that models show the drying across Southern Hemisphere MCs is independent of trends in the Southern Annular Mode. All Mediterranean-type climates have exhibited residual drying trends from both internal variability and externally forced thermodynamic processes. Large ensembles suggest internal variability contributes significantly to the observed drying. However, in many regions the observed drying lies outside the ensemble distribution, raising questions about model accuracy.

Original language	English
Article number	e2024GL114258
Journal	Geophysical Research Letters
Volume	52
Issue number	12
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL114258
State	Published - Jun 28 2025
Externally published	Yes

Keywords

Mediterranean-type climates
analogs
dynamic
subtropical drying
thermodynamic

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10.1029/2024GL114258

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title = "Dynamic Contributions to Recent Observed Wintertime Precipitation Trends in Mediterranean-Type Climate Regions",

abstract = "Many Mediterranean-type climates (MCs) have experienced wintertime drying trends since 1979. Using a dynamical adjustment method, we separate the effects of circulation-induced drying trends from other residual trends. Our analysis reveals that circulation trends are the leading cause of the observed drying in Central Chile and the US Southwest, and that models show the drying across Southern Hemisphere MCs is independent of trends in the Southern Annular Mode. All Mediterranean-type climates have exhibited residual drying trends from both internal variability and externally forced thermodynamic processes. Large ensembles suggest internal variability contributes significantly to the observed drying. However, in many regions the observed drying lies outside the ensemble distribution, raising questions about model accuracy.",

keywords = "Mediterranean-type climates, analogs, dynamic, subtropical drying, thermodynamic",

author = "Robert Doane-Solomon and Tim Woollings and Simpson, \{Isla R.\}",

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year = "2025",

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doi = "10.1029/2024GL114258",

language = "English",

volume = "52",

journal = "Geophysical Research Letters",

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T1 - Dynamic Contributions to Recent Observed Wintertime Precipitation Trends in Mediterranean-Type Climate Regions

AU - Doane-Solomon, Robert

AU - Woollings, Tim

AU - Simpson, Isla R.

PY - 2025/6/28

Y1 - 2025/6/28

N2 - Many Mediterranean-type climates (MCs) have experienced wintertime drying trends since 1979. Using a dynamical adjustment method, we separate the effects of circulation-induced drying trends from other residual trends. Our analysis reveals that circulation trends are the leading cause of the observed drying in Central Chile and the US Southwest, and that models show the drying across Southern Hemisphere MCs is independent of trends in the Southern Annular Mode. All Mediterranean-type climates have exhibited residual drying trends from both internal variability and externally forced thermodynamic processes. Large ensembles suggest internal variability contributes significantly to the observed drying. However, in many regions the observed drying lies outside the ensemble distribution, raising questions about model accuracy.

AB - Many Mediterranean-type climates (MCs) have experienced wintertime drying trends since 1979. Using a dynamical adjustment method, we separate the effects of circulation-induced drying trends from other residual trends. Our analysis reveals that circulation trends are the leading cause of the observed drying in Central Chile and the US Southwest, and that models show the drying across Southern Hemisphere MCs is independent of trends in the Southern Annular Mode. All Mediterranean-type climates have exhibited residual drying trends from both internal variability and externally forced thermodynamic processes. Large ensembles suggest internal variability contributes significantly to the observed drying. However, in many regions the observed drying lies outside the ensemble distribution, raising questions about model accuracy.

KW - Mediterranean-type climates

KW - analogs

KW - dynamic

KW - subtropical drying

KW - thermodynamic

UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/105008639954

U2 - 10.1029/2024GL114258

DO - 10.1029/2024GL114258

M3 - Article

AN - SCOPUS:105008639954

SN - 0094-8276

VL - 52

JO - Geophysical Research Letters

JF - Geophysical Research Letters

IS - 12

M1 - e2024GL114258

ER -

Dynamic Contributions to Recent Observed Wintertime Precipitation Trends in Mediterranean-Type Climate Regions

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Keywords

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