Effects of stabilizing atmospheric CO2 on global climate in the next two centuries

A. Dai; T. M.L. Wigley; G. A. Meehl; W. M. Washington

doi:10.1029/2001GL013359

Effects of stabilizing atmospheric CO₂ on global climate in the next two centuries

A. Dai, T. M.L. Wigley, G. A. Meehl, W. M. Washington

National Center for Atmospheric Research

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29 Scopus citations

Abstract

Previous coupled ocean-atmosphere model simulations showed that the reduction in global warming is only moderate by year 2100 under CO₂ stabilization (STA) scenarios compared with that under business-as-usual (BAU) scenarios. To further illustrate the long-term effect of stabilizing CO₂ on global climate, we integrated a coupled ocean-atmosphere model from 1870 to 2200 forced by historical and projected CO₂, SO₂ and other greenhouse gases under newly updated BAU and STA scenarios. Our results show that the reduction in global warming resulting from CO₂ stabilization could be large (∼ 1.5°C globally, and up to 12°C in DJF at northern high-latitudes) by the later part of the 22^nd century. Stabilizing the CO₂ level also results in reduced changes in precipitation, soil moisture and diurnal temperature range. BAU and STA patterns of change are similar for all variables examined.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	4511-4514
Number of pages	4
Journal	Geophysical Research Letters
Volume	28
Issue number	23
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1029/2001GL013359
State	Published - Dec 1 2001

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title = "Effects of stabilizing atmospheric CO2 on global climate in the next two centuries",

abstract = "Previous coupled ocean-atmosphere model simulations showed that the reduction in global warming is only moderate by year 2100 under CO2 stabilization (STA) scenarios compared with that under business-as-usual (BAU) scenarios. To further illustrate the long-term effect of stabilizing CO2 on global climate, we integrated a coupled ocean-atmosphere model from 1870 to 2200 forced by historical and projected CO2, SO2 and other greenhouse gases under newly updated BAU and STA scenarios. Our results show that the reduction in global warming resulting from CO2 stabilization could be large (∼ 1.5°C globally, and up to 12°C in DJF at northern high-latitudes) by the later part of the 22nd century. Stabilizing the CO2 level also results in reduced changes in precipitation, soil moisture and diurnal temperature range. BAU and STA patterns of change are similar for all variables examined.",

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T1 - Effects of stabilizing atmospheric CO2 on global climate in the next two centuries

AU - Dai, A.

AU - Wigley, T. M.L.

AU - Meehl, G. A.

AU - Washington, W. M.

PY - 2001/12/1

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N2 - Previous coupled ocean-atmosphere model simulations showed that the reduction in global warming is only moderate by year 2100 under CO2 stabilization (STA) scenarios compared with that under business-as-usual (BAU) scenarios. To further illustrate the long-term effect of stabilizing CO2 on global climate, we integrated a coupled ocean-atmosphere model from 1870 to 2200 forced by historical and projected CO2, SO2 and other greenhouse gases under newly updated BAU and STA scenarios. Our results show that the reduction in global warming resulting from CO2 stabilization could be large (∼ 1.5°C globally, and up to 12°C in DJF at northern high-latitudes) by the later part of the 22nd century. Stabilizing the CO2 level also results in reduced changes in precipitation, soil moisture and diurnal temperature range. BAU and STA patterns of change are similar for all variables examined.

AB - Previous coupled ocean-atmosphere model simulations showed that the reduction in global warming is only moderate by year 2100 under CO2 stabilization (STA) scenarios compared with that under business-as-usual (BAU) scenarios. To further illustrate the long-term effect of stabilizing CO2 on global climate, we integrated a coupled ocean-atmosphere model from 1870 to 2200 forced by historical and projected CO2, SO2 and other greenhouse gases under newly updated BAU and STA scenarios. Our results show that the reduction in global warming resulting from CO2 stabilization could be large (∼ 1.5°C globally, and up to 12°C in DJF at northern high-latitudes) by the later part of the 22nd century. Stabilizing the CO2 level also results in reduced changes in precipitation, soil moisture and diurnal temperature range. BAU and STA patterns of change are similar for all variables examined.

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Effects of stabilizing atmospheric CO₂ on global climate in the next two centuries

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