Evaluation of the 2022 West Nile virus forecasting challenge, USA

Ryan D. Harp; Karen M. Holcomb; Renata Retkute; Alisa Prusokiene; Augustinas Prusokas; Zeynep Ertem; Marco Ajelli; Allisandra G. Kummer; Maria Litvinova; Stefano Merler; Ana Pastore y Piontti; Piero Poletti; Alessandro Vespignani; Andre B. B. Wilke; Agnese Zardini; Kelly Helm Smith; Philip Armstrong; Nicholas Defelice; Alexander Keyel; John Shepard; Rebecca Smith; Andrew Tyre; John Humphreys; Lee W. Cohnstaedt; Saman Hosseini; Caterina Scoglio; Morgan E. Gorris; Martha Barnard; S. Kane Moser; Julie A. Spencer; Maggie S. J. Mccarter; Christopher Lee; Melissa S. Nolan; Christopher M. Barker; J. Erin Staples; Randall J. Nett; Michael A. Johansson

doi:10.1186/s13071-025-06767-2

Evaluation of the 2022 West Nile virus forecasting challenge, USA

Ryan D. Harp
, Karen M. Holcomb
, Renata Retkute
, Alisa Prusokiene
, Augustinas Prusokas
, Zeynep Ertem
, Marco Ajelli
, Allisandra G. Kummer
, Maria Litvinova
, Stefano Merler
, Ana Pastore y Piontti
, Piero Poletti
, Alessandro Vespignani
, Andre B. B. Wilke
, Agnese Zardini
, Kelly Helm Smith
, Philip Armstrong
, Nicholas Defelice
, Alexander Keyel
, John Shepard

Rebecca Smith, Andrew Tyre, John Humphreys, Lee W. Cohnstaedt, Saman Hosseini, Caterina Scoglio, Morgan E. Gorris, Martha Barnard, S. Kane Moser, Julie A. Spencer, Maggie S. J. Mccarter, Christopher Lee, Melissa S. Nolan, Christopher M. Barker, J. Erin Staples, Randall J. Nett, Michael A. Johansson

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Original language	English
Article number	152
Number of pages	12
Journal	Parasites and Vectors
Volume	18
Issue number	1
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1186/s13071-025-06767-2
State	Published - Apr 23 2025

Keywords

Ensemble
Forecasting
Logarithmic scoring
Multi-model assessment
Vector-borne disease
Weighted interval scoring
West Nile virus
West Nile virus neuroinvasive disease

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10.1186/s13071-025-06767-2

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Harp, R. D., Holcomb, K. M., Retkute, R., Prusokiene, A., Prusokas, A., Ertem, Z., Ajelli, M., Kummer, A. G., Litvinova, M., Merler, S., Piontti, A. P. Y., Poletti, P., Vespignani, A., Wilke, A. B. B., Zardini, A., Smith, K. H., Armstrong, P., Defelice, N., Keyel, A., ... Johansson, M. A. (2025). Evaluation of the 2022 West Nile virus forecasting challenge, USA. Parasites and Vectors, 18(1), Article 152. https://doi.org/10.1186/s13071-025-06767-2

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title = "Evaluation of the 2022 West Nile virus forecasting challenge, USA",

keywords = "Ensemble, Forecasting, Logarithmic scoring, Multi-model assessment, Vector-borne disease, Weighted interval scoring, West Nile virus, West Nile virus neuroinvasive disease",

author = "Harp, \{Ryan D.\} and Holcomb, \{Karen M.\} and Renata Retkute and Alisa Prusokiene and Augustinas Prusokas and Zeynep Ertem and Marco Ajelli and Kummer, \{Allisandra G.\} and Maria Litvinova and Stefano Merler and Piontti, \{Ana Pastore y\} and Piero Poletti and Alessandro Vespignani and Wilke, \{Andre B. B.\} and Agnese Zardini and Smith, \{Kelly Helm\} and Philip Armstrong and Nicholas Defelice and Alexander Keyel and John Shepard and Rebecca Smith and Andrew Tyre and John Humphreys and Cohnstaedt, \{Lee W.\} and Saman Hosseini and Caterina Scoglio and Gorris, \{Morgan E.\} and Martha Barnard and Moser, \{S. Kane\} and Spencer, \{Julie A.\} and Mccarter, \{Maggie S. J.\} and Christopher Lee and Nolan, \{Melissa S.\} and Barker, \{Christopher M.\} and Staples, \{J. Erin\} and Nett, \{Randall J.\} and Johansson, \{Michael A.\}",

year = "2025",

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doi = "10.1186/s13071-025-06767-2",

language = "English",

volume = "18",

journal = "Parasites and Vectors",

issn = "1756-3305",

publisher = "BioMed Central Ltd",

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}

Harp, RD, Holcomb, KM, Retkute, R, Prusokiene, A, Prusokas, A, Ertem, Z, Ajelli, M, Kummer, AG, Litvinova, M, Merler, S, Piontti, APY, Poletti, P, Vespignani, A, Wilke, ABB, Zardini, A, Smith, KH, Armstrong, P, Defelice, N, Keyel, A, Shepard, J, Smith, R, Tyre, A, Humphreys, J, Cohnstaedt, LW, Hosseini, S, Scoglio, C, Gorris, ME, Barnard, M, Moser, SK, Spencer, JA, Mccarter, MSJ, Lee, C, Nolan, MS, Barker, CM, Staples, JE, Nett, RJ & Johansson, MA 2025, 'Evaluation of the 2022 West Nile virus forecasting challenge, USA', Parasites and Vectors, vol. 18, no. 1, 152. https://doi.org/10.1186/s13071-025-06767-2

TY - JOUR

T1 - Evaluation of the 2022 West Nile virus forecasting challenge, USA

AU - Harp, Ryan D.

AU - Holcomb, Karen M.

AU - Retkute, Renata

AU - Prusokiene, Alisa

AU - Prusokas, Augustinas

AU - Ertem, Zeynep

AU - Ajelli, Marco

AU - Kummer, Allisandra G.

AU - Litvinova, Maria

AU - Merler, Stefano

AU - Piontti, Ana Pastore y

AU - Poletti, Piero

AU - Vespignani, Alessandro

AU - Wilke, Andre B. B.

AU - Zardini, Agnese

AU - Smith, Kelly Helm

AU - Armstrong, Philip

AU - Defelice, Nicholas

AU - Keyel, Alexander

AU - Shepard, John

AU - Smith, Rebecca

AU - Tyre, Andrew

AU - Humphreys, John

AU - Cohnstaedt, Lee W.

AU - Hosseini, Saman

AU - Scoglio, Caterina

AU - Gorris, Morgan E.

AU - Barnard, Martha

AU - Moser, S. Kane

AU - Spencer, Julie A.

AU - Mccarter, Maggie S. J.

AU - Lee, Christopher

AU - Nolan, Melissa S.

AU - Barker, Christopher M.

AU - Staples, J. Erin

AU - Nett, Randall J.

AU - Johansson, Michael A.

PY - 2025/4/23

Y1 - 2025/4/23

KW - Ensemble

KW - Forecasting

KW - Logarithmic scoring

KW - Multi-model assessment

KW - Vector-borne disease

KW - Weighted interval scoring

KW - West Nile virus

KW - West Nile virus neuroinvasive disease

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U2 - 10.1186/s13071-025-06767-2

DO - 10.1186/s13071-025-06767-2

M3 - Article

C2 - 40269898

SN - 1756-3305

VL - 18

JO - Parasites and Vectors

JF - Parasites and Vectors

IS - 1

M1 - 152

ER -

Evaluation of the 2022 West Nile virus forecasting challenge, USA

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