Extended-range probabilistic forecasts of Ganges and Brahmaputra floods in Bangladesh

Climate Forecast Applications in Bangladesh (CFAB) decided to issue probabilistic forecasts to support risk management that allowed cost-benefit analyzes to be made relative to the probability of the occurrence of flood. It envisioned a seamless probabilistic prediction system ranging from daily to seasonal forecasts. The principal aim of CFAB was to assess the feasibility of developing a forecast system and, if possible, to develop an operational system to produce such forecasts and identify a means of disseminating these forecasts to user communities. The system has been shown to work well in two large river basins, Ganga and the Brahmaputra, and is perhaps best suited for river systems that are large monsoonal river basins. Discharge forecasts in the Ganges and Brahmaputra basins could be improved immediately if streamflow data were freely distributed even within India itself. Better developmental and funding models are needed to provide aid to developing economies for the provision of relevant decision-oriented information.