Future changes in Gulf of Mexico hurricane impacts

Meeting industry demand for assessments of future changes in Gulf of Mexico hurricane impacts is a challenge that extends beyond simply improving hurricane science. There remains a need to translate the latest hurricane science to industry impact assessments. The National Center for Atmospheric Research is actively engaged in a collaborative project with the Research Partnership to Secure Energy for America, the CASE-EJIP JIP, and Willis Re to align the latest hurricane science with the requirements of industry. Loading on structures in the Gulf of Mexico is a complex function of wind, wave, and current. Simple empirical relationships miss some of the essential physics, particularly under extreme conditions, resulting in errors in design criteria such as the 100-year load. To account for these important processes, a modeling approach is designed that reconstructs historical hurricane wind fields that are then used to drive dynamical wave and current models. Using this approach, historical hurricanes is simulated under current and future climate conditions, and potential future changes to wind, wave and current are assessed. An alternative and complementary approach to assessing hurricane damage is developed. This approach uses empirical relationships between the large-scale environment and hurricane parameters that are known to cause damage (intensity, size and forward speed) to assess future hurricane damage. This approach projects a future decrease in mean tropical cyclone damage potential of 15 percent by the 2070s with a range of ⁺2 percent to-57 percent. This combination of approaches is anticipated to lead to better planning guidelines that will enable improved design of structures and operating procedures, which in turn will provide more efficient future oil and gas production and aid in the minimization of environmental and safety risks.