Impacts of Global Warming on West African Monsoon Rainfall

Imoleayo E. Gbode; Vincent O. Ajayi; Kehinde O. Ogunjobi; Jimy Dudhia; Changhai Liu

doi:10.1007/978-3-030-45106-6_93

Impacts of Global Warming on West African Monsoon Rainfall

Imoleayo E. Gbode
, Vincent O. Ajayi
, Kehinde O. Ogunjobi
, Jimy Dudhia
, Changhai Liu

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Chapter › peer-review

2 Scopus citations

Abstract

The impacts of global warming on rainfall in West Africa were examined using a numerical framework for 5 monsoon years (2001, 2007, 2008, 2010, and 2011). Rainfall characteristics over the three climatic zones, Guinea coast, Savannah, and Sahel, were analyzed. The potential changes associated with global warming were assessed by the pseudo-global warming (PGW) downscaling method. Multiple PGW runs were conducted using climate perturbation from the 40-member ensemble of the Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1) coupled with Community Atmospheric Model version 5.2 (CAM5.2) component large ensemble project. The model output was compared with Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission and Global Precipitation Climatology Project rainfall alongside surface temperature from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecast Reanalysis. Results show that the estimated rainfall amount from the future climate in the 2070s increases slightly compared with the current climate. The total rainfall amount simulated for the current climate is 16% and 63% less than that of the PGW runs and observations, respectively. Also found is an increase (decrease) in heavy (light and moderate) rainfall amount in the PGW runs. These results are, however, contingent on the global circulation model (GCM), which provides the boundary conditions of the regional climate model. CESM1.0-CAM5.2, the GCM employed in this study, tends to provide a greater surface temperature change of about 4 °C. This projected temperature change consequently caused the increase in the simulated precipitation in the PGW experiments, thus highlighting the advantage of using the PGW method to estimate the likely difference between the present and future climate with reduced large-scale model differences and computational resources. The findings of this study are, however, useful to inform decision-making in climate-related activities and guide the design of climate change adaptation projects for the West African region.

Original language	English
Title of host publication	African Handbook of Climate Change Adaptation
Subtitle of host publication	With 610 Figures and 361 Tables
Publisher	Springer International Publishing
Pages	2469-2483
Number of pages	15
ISBN (Electronic)	9783030451066
ISBN (Print)	9783030451059
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-45106-6_93
State	Published - Jan 1 2021

Keywords

Community Earth System Model
Guinea coast
Pseudo-global warming
Rainfall
Sahel
Savannah
Temperature
Weather Research and Forecasting model

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10.1007/978-3-030-45106-6_93

Cite this

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title = "Impacts of Global Warming on West African Monsoon Rainfall",

abstract = "The impacts of global warming on rainfall in West Africa were examined using a numerical framework for 5 monsoon years (2001, 2007, 2008, 2010, and 2011). Rainfall characteristics over the three climatic zones, Guinea coast, Savannah, and Sahel, were analyzed. The potential changes associated with global warming were assessed by the pseudo-global warming (PGW) downscaling method. Multiple PGW runs were conducted using climate perturbation from the 40-member ensemble of the Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1) coupled with Community Atmospheric Model version 5.2 (CAM5.2) component large ensemble project. The model output was compared with Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission and Global Precipitation Climatology Project rainfall alongside surface temperature from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecast Reanalysis. Results show that the estimated rainfall amount from the future climate in the 2070s increases slightly compared with the current climate. The total rainfall amount simulated for the current climate is 16\% and 63\% less than that of the PGW runs and observations, respectively. Also found is an increase (decrease) in heavy (light and moderate) rainfall amount in the PGW runs. These results are, however, contingent on the global circulation model (GCM), which provides the boundary conditions of the regional climate model. CESM1.0-CAM5.2, the GCM employed in this study, tends to provide a greater surface temperature change of about 4 °C. This projected temperature change consequently caused the increase in the simulated precipitation in the PGW experiments, thus highlighting the advantage of using the PGW method to estimate the likely difference between the present and future climate with reduced large-scale model differences and computational resources. The findings of this study are, however, useful to inform decision-making in climate-related activities and guide the design of climate change adaptation projects for the West African region.",

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T1 - Impacts of Global Warming on West African Monsoon Rainfall

AU - Gbode, Imoleayo E.

AU - Ajayi, Vincent O.

AU - Ogunjobi, Kehinde O.

AU - Dudhia, Jimy

AU - Liu, Changhai

N1 - Publisher Copyright: © The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s) 2021.

PY - 2021/1/1

Y1 - 2021/1/1

N2 - The impacts of global warming on rainfall in West Africa were examined using a numerical framework for 5 monsoon years (2001, 2007, 2008, 2010, and 2011). Rainfall characteristics over the three climatic zones, Guinea coast, Savannah, and Sahel, were analyzed. The potential changes associated with global warming were assessed by the pseudo-global warming (PGW) downscaling method. Multiple PGW runs were conducted using climate perturbation from the 40-member ensemble of the Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1) coupled with Community Atmospheric Model version 5.2 (CAM5.2) component large ensemble project. The model output was compared with Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission and Global Precipitation Climatology Project rainfall alongside surface temperature from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecast Reanalysis. Results show that the estimated rainfall amount from the future climate in the 2070s increases slightly compared with the current climate. The total rainfall amount simulated for the current climate is 16% and 63% less than that of the PGW runs and observations, respectively. Also found is an increase (decrease) in heavy (light and moderate) rainfall amount in the PGW runs. These results are, however, contingent on the global circulation model (GCM), which provides the boundary conditions of the regional climate model. CESM1.0-CAM5.2, the GCM employed in this study, tends to provide a greater surface temperature change of about 4 °C. This projected temperature change consequently caused the increase in the simulated precipitation in the PGW experiments, thus highlighting the advantage of using the PGW method to estimate the likely difference between the present and future climate with reduced large-scale model differences and computational resources. The findings of this study are, however, useful to inform decision-making in climate-related activities and guide the design of climate change adaptation projects for the West African region.

AB - The impacts of global warming on rainfall in West Africa were examined using a numerical framework for 5 monsoon years (2001, 2007, 2008, 2010, and 2011). Rainfall characteristics over the three climatic zones, Guinea coast, Savannah, and Sahel, were analyzed. The potential changes associated with global warming were assessed by the pseudo-global warming (PGW) downscaling method. Multiple PGW runs were conducted using climate perturbation from the 40-member ensemble of the Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1) coupled with Community Atmospheric Model version 5.2 (CAM5.2) component large ensemble project. The model output was compared with Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission and Global Precipitation Climatology Project rainfall alongside surface temperature from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecast Reanalysis. Results show that the estimated rainfall amount from the future climate in the 2070s increases slightly compared with the current climate. The total rainfall amount simulated for the current climate is 16% and 63% less than that of the PGW runs and observations, respectively. Also found is an increase (decrease) in heavy (light and moderate) rainfall amount in the PGW runs. These results are, however, contingent on the global circulation model (GCM), which provides the boundary conditions of the regional climate model. CESM1.0-CAM5.2, the GCM employed in this study, tends to provide a greater surface temperature change of about 4 °C. This projected temperature change consequently caused the increase in the simulated precipitation in the PGW experiments, thus highlighting the advantage of using the PGW method to estimate the likely difference between the present and future climate with reduced large-scale model differences and computational resources. The findings of this study are, however, useful to inform decision-making in climate-related activities and guide the design of climate change adaptation projects for the West African region.

KW - Community Earth System Model

KW - Guinea coast

KW - Pseudo-global warming

KW - Rainfall

KW - Sahel

KW - Savannah

KW - Temperature

KW - Weather Research and Forecasting model

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U2 - 10.1007/978-3-030-45106-6_93

DO - 10.1007/978-3-030-45106-6_93

M3 - Chapter

AN - SCOPUS:85138751463

SN - 9783030451059

SP - 2469

EP - 2483

BT - African Handbook of Climate Change Adaptation

PB - Springer International Publishing

ER -

Impacts of Global Warming on West African Monsoon Rainfall

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