Improving simulations of daily mean dynamic sea level extremes in the Gulf of Mexico with high-resolution community earth system model

Gaopeng Xu, Ping Chang, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Frederic S. Castruccio, Stephen Yeager, Qiuying Zhang, Jaison Kurian, Susan Bates, Christine C. Shepard, Justin Small

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

Abstract

Extreme sea-level events, such as those caused by tropical cyclones (TCs), pose significant risks to coastal areas. However, the current generation of climate models struggles to simulate these events due to coarse resolution. By comparing high-resolution (HR) and low-resolution (LR) Community Earth System Model simulations with tide gauge and altimeter data along the US. Gulf of Mexico (GoM) coast, we find that HR better represents both mean dynamic sea level (DSL) and daily mean extreme DSL (EDSL) statistics. In contrast, LR significantly underestimates the strength of EDSL mainly due to its deficiency in simulating strong TCs. Both observations and HR show larger daily mean EDSL on the western Gulf coast than on the eastern side, highlighting the need for HR climate simulations to improve coastal resilience planning.

Original languageEnglish
Article number104023
JournalEnvironmental Research Letters
Volume20
Issue number10
DOIs
StatePublished - Oct 1 2025
Externally publishedYes

Keywords

  • extreme sea levels
  • high-resolution climate models
  • tropical cyclones

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