Influence of initialization techniques on the forecast of hurricane Alma of 1962 with a three-dimensional primitive - equation model.

A three-dimensional primitive equation model was used to study dynamic initialization with observed data in a complex numerical model. Observations of tropical cyclone Alma of 1962 during intensification into a tropical storm provided the nonsteady state data. Three experiments spanning a 24 h period were conducted. Two forecasts, one of 24 h and the other of 12 h, were made from initial conditions obtained by a static initialization based primarily on the balance equation. In the third experiment, a 12 h dynamic initialization was followed by a forecast of the same length. (A)