Is the High ECS in CESM2 Degrading Transient Climate Change Projections Over the 21st Century?

The Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2) has a higher equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) than previous versions of CESM and many other Coupled Model Intercomparison Project models. Relatedly, CESM2 simulates too-cold ice-age and too-hot warm paleoclimates. An inappropriate ice number limiter in the CESM2 microphysics scheme was discovered, and some simulations indicate that the high ECS may be partially attributable to this inappropriate limiter. In light of those findings, we seek to provide users of CESM2 guidance on the fitness of CESM2 for a variety of applications. We find that despite concerns about its climate sensitivity and simulations of past climates, the transient climate response in CESM2 is moderate relative to the CMIP6 ensemble and robust across different versions of CESM. The changes made between CESM1 and CESM2 and the fixes to the microphysical issues of CESM2 have little impact on its simulated 20th and 21st century climates under SSP3–7.0. As a result, the simulated 20th and 21st century climates of CESM2 fall well within the range of the CMIP6 ensemble and agree well with observations over the historical record. However, hotter and colder paleoclimates simulated by CESM2 are inconsistent with paleoclimate evidence. A modified version of CESM2, PaleoCalibr CESM2, may be suitable for paleoclimate studies. Simulations past the end of the 21st century with default CESM2 and studies of microphysical processes in all GCMs should be analyzed with care.