Long-range prediction and the stratosphere

Adam A. Scaife; Mark P. Baldwin; Amy H. Butler; Andrew J. Charlton-Perez; Daniela I.V. Domeisen; Chaim I. Garfinkel; Steven C. Hardiman; Peter Haynes; Alexey Yu Karpechko; Eun Pa Lim; Shunsuke Noguchi; Judith Perlwitz; Lorenzo Polvani; Jadwiga H. Richter; John Scinocca; Michael Sigmond; Theodore G. Shepherd; Seok Woo Son; David W.J. Thompson

doi:10.5194/acp-22-2601-2022

Long-range prediction and the stratosphere

Adam A. Scaife
, Mark P. Baldwin
, Amy H. Butler
, Andrew J. Charlton-Perez
, Daniela I.V. Domeisen
, Chaim I. Garfinkel
, Steven C. Hardiman
, Peter Haynes
, Alexey Yu Karpechko
, Eun Pa Lim
, Shunsuke Noguchi
, Judith Perlwitz
, Lorenzo Polvani
, Jadwiga H. Richter
, John Scinocca
, Michael Sigmond
, Theodore G. Shepherd
, Seok Woo Son
, David W.J. Thompson

Met Office
University of Exeter
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
University of Reading
Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zurich
University of Lausanne
Hebrew University of Jerusalem
University of Cambridge
Finnish Meteorological Institute
Bureau of Meteorology Australia
Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology
Japan Meteorological Agency
Columbia University
National Center for Atmospheric Research
Université Laval and Environment and Climate Change Canada
Seoul National University
Colorado State University

Research output: Contribution to journal › Review article › peer-review

64 Scopus citations

Abstract

Over recent years there have been concomitant advances in the development of stratosphere-resolving numerical models, our understanding of stratosphere-troposphere interaction, and the extension of long-range forecasts to explicitly include the stratosphere. These advances are now allowing for new and improved capability in long-range prediction. We present an overview of this development and show how the inclusion of the stratosphere in forecast systems aids monthly, seasonal, and annual-to-decadal climate predictions and multidecadal projections. We end with an outlook towards the future and identify areas of improvement that could further benefit these rapidly evolving predictions.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	2601-2623
Number of pages	23
Journal	Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
Volume	22
Issue number	4
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-2601-2022
State	Published - Feb 25 2022
Externally published	Yes

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10.5194/acp-22-2601-2022

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Scaife, A. A., Baldwin, M. P., Butler, A. H., Charlton-Perez, A. J., Domeisen, D. I. V., Garfinkel, C. I., Hardiman, S. C., Haynes, P., Karpechko, A. Y., Lim, E. P., Noguchi, S., Perlwitz, J., Polvani, L., Richter, J. H., Scinocca, J., Sigmond, M., Shepherd, T. G., Son, S. W., & Thompson, D. W. J. (2022). Long-range prediction and the stratosphere. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 22(4), 2601-2623. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-2601-2022

@article{33d938026cd942e797c46694f39c5aac,

title = "Long-range prediction and the stratosphere",

abstract = "Over recent years there have been concomitant advances in the development of stratosphere-resolving numerical models, our understanding of stratosphere-troposphere interaction, and the extension of long-range forecasts to explicitly include the stratosphere. These advances are now allowing for new and improved capability in long-range prediction. We present an overview of this development and show how the inclusion of the stratosphere in forecast systems aids monthly, seasonal, and annual-to-decadal climate predictions and multidecadal projections. We end with an outlook towards the future and identify areas of improvement that could further benefit these rapidly evolving predictions.",

author = "Scaife, \{Adam A.\} and Baldwin, \{Mark P.\} and Butler, \{Amy H.\} and Charlton-Perez, \{Andrew J.\} and Domeisen, \{Daniela I.V.\} and Garfinkel, \{Chaim I.\} and Hardiman, \{Steven C.\} and Peter Haynes and Karpechko, \{Alexey Yu\} and Lim, \{Eun Pa\} and Shunsuke Noguchi and Judith Perlwitz and Lorenzo Polvani and Richter, \{Jadwiga H.\} and John Scinocca and Michael Sigmond and Shepherd, \{Theodore G.\} and Son, \{Seok Woo\} and Thompson, \{David W.J.\}",

year = "2022",

month = feb,

day = "25",

doi = "10.5194/acp-22-2601-2022",

language = "English",

volume = "22",

pages = "2601--2623",

journal = "Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics",

issn = "1680-7316",

publisher = "Copernicus Publications",

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}

Scaife, AA, Baldwin, MP, Butler, AH, Charlton-Perez, AJ, Domeisen, DIV, Garfinkel, CI, Hardiman, SC, Haynes, P, Karpechko, AY, Lim, EP, Noguchi, S, Perlwitz, J, Polvani, L, Richter, JH, Scinocca, J, Sigmond, M, Shepherd, TG, Son, SW & Thompson, DWJ 2022, 'Long-range prediction and the stratosphere', Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, vol. 22, no. 4, pp. 2601-2623. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-2601-2022

TY - JOUR

T1 - Long-range prediction and the stratosphere

AU - Scaife, Adam A.

AU - Baldwin, Mark P.

AU - Butler, Amy H.

AU - Charlton-Perez, Andrew J.

AU - Domeisen, Daniela I.V.

AU - Garfinkel, Chaim I.

AU - Hardiman, Steven C.

AU - Haynes, Peter

AU - Karpechko, Alexey Yu

AU - Lim, Eun Pa

AU - Noguchi, Shunsuke

AU - Perlwitz, Judith

AU - Polvani, Lorenzo

AU - Richter, Jadwiga H.

AU - Scinocca, John

AU - Sigmond, Michael

AU - Shepherd, Theodore G.

AU - Son, Seok Woo

AU - Thompson, David W.J.

PY - 2022/2/25

Y1 - 2022/2/25

N2 - Over recent years there have been concomitant advances in the development of stratosphere-resolving numerical models, our understanding of stratosphere-troposphere interaction, and the extension of long-range forecasts to explicitly include the stratosphere. These advances are now allowing for new and improved capability in long-range prediction. We present an overview of this development and show how the inclusion of the stratosphere in forecast systems aids monthly, seasonal, and annual-to-decadal climate predictions and multidecadal projections. We end with an outlook towards the future and identify areas of improvement that could further benefit these rapidly evolving predictions.

AB - Over recent years there have been concomitant advances in the development of stratosphere-resolving numerical models, our understanding of stratosphere-troposphere interaction, and the extension of long-range forecasts to explicitly include the stratosphere. These advances are now allowing for new and improved capability in long-range prediction. We present an overview of this development and show how the inclusion of the stratosphere in forecast systems aids monthly, seasonal, and annual-to-decadal climate predictions and multidecadal projections. We end with an outlook towards the future and identify areas of improvement that could further benefit these rapidly evolving predictions.

UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/85125848370

U2 - 10.5194/acp-22-2601-2022

DO - 10.5194/acp-22-2601-2022

M3 - Review article

AN - SCOPUS:85125848370

SN - 1680-7316

VL - 22

SP - 2601

EP - 2623

JO - Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics

JF - Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics

IS - 4

ER -

Long-range prediction and the stratosphere

Abstract

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