Mean-field threshold systems and phase dynamics: An application to earthquake fault systems

Driven mean-field threshold systems demonstrate complex observable space-time patterns of behavior that are difficult to understand or predict without knowledge of the underlying dynamics, which are typically unobservable. Here we describe a new method based on phase dynamics techniques to analyze and forecast the space-time patterns of activity in these systems. Application to earthquake data from a typical, seismically active region shows that the method holds considerable promise for forecasting the temporal occurrence of the largest future events. We demonstrate the power of our technique via an application to the difficult problem of earthquake forecasting in southern California.