Moisture from US Corn Belt fuels more intense convective storms

Zhe Zhang; Andreas F. Prein; Cenlin He; Changhai Liu; Gonzalo Miguez-Macho; Fei Chen; Ronnie Abolafia-Rosenzweig; Tzu Shun Lin; Roy Rasmussen

doi:10.1038/s43247-025-03089-0

Moisture from US Corn Belt fuels more intense convective storms

Zhe Zhang
, Andreas F. Prein
, Cenlin He
, Changhai Liu
, Gonzalo Miguez-Macho
, Fei Chen
, Ronnie Abolafia-Rosenzweig
, Tzu Shun Lin
, Roy Rasmussen

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

Abstract

The US Corn Belt is among the world’s most productive agricultural regions and a global hotspot for mesoscale convective systems (MCSs), which supply vital growing season rainfall but also drive hazardous flooding. While evapotranspiration (ET) from shallow groundwater, extensive croplands, and irrigation is known to influence regional precipitation, its role in fueling convective storms remains poorly understood. Here we use a high-resolution regional climate model coupled with an advanced water vapor tracer to track moisture from Corn Belt ET into individual convective storms. We find that the integrated groundwater-crop-irrigation interactions amplify MCS frequency by 24-35%, extend storm lifetime by up to 10%, and accelerate storm movement. Moisture from Corn Belt ET enhances the warm-moist inflows, sustaining convective cells and enhancing precipitation near the storm center, with more pronounced effects in stronger storms. These findings highlight the significant role of shallow groundwater and agricultural activities in intensifying convective storms, creating cascading hazards that threaten water and food security.

Original language	English
Article number	70
Number of pages	12
Journal	Communications Earth and Environment
Volume	7
Issue number	1
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-03089-0
State	Published - Dec 16 2025
Externally published	Yes

Funding

NCAR is funded by the National Science Foundation (NSF) and this work is supported by the NSF NCAR Advanced Study Program and NCAR's Water System program. We thank the ECMWF and National Climate Data Centre for making available their datasets. Computer resources were provided by the Cheyenne supercomputer, Computational and Information Systems Laboratory (NCAR Community Computing, http://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d7wd3xhc).

Funders	Funder number
National Science Foundation (NSF)	Water System Program

Keywords

Land-atmosphere interactions
Climate-change
Irrigation
Model
Precipitation
Agriculture
Feedbacks
Evolution
Regions
Systems

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Cite this

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title = "Moisture from US Corn Belt fuels more intense convective storms",

abstract = "The US Corn Belt is among the world{\textquoteright}s most productive agricultural regions and a global hotspot for mesoscale convective systems (MCSs), which supply vital growing season rainfall but also drive hazardous flooding. While evapotranspiration (ET) from shallow groundwater, extensive croplands, and irrigation is known to influence regional precipitation, its role in fueling convective storms remains poorly understood. Here we use a high-resolution regional climate model coupled with an advanced water vapor tracer to track moisture from Corn Belt ET into individual convective storms. We find that the integrated groundwater-crop-irrigation interactions amplify MCS frequency by 24-35\%, extend storm lifetime by up to 10\%, and accelerate storm movement. Moisture from Corn Belt ET enhances the warm-moist inflows, sustaining convective cells and enhancing precipitation near the storm center, with more pronounced effects in stronger storms. These findings highlight the significant role of shallow groundwater and agricultural activities in intensifying convective storms, creating cascading hazards that threaten water and food security.",

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doi = "10.1038/s43247-025-03089-0",

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AU - Zhang, Zhe

AU - Prein, Andreas F.

AU - He, Cenlin

AU - Liu, Changhai

AU - Miguez-Macho, Gonzalo

AU - Chen, Fei

AU - Abolafia-Rosenzweig, Ronnie

AU - Lin, Tzu Shun

AU - Rasmussen, Roy

N1 - Publisher Copyright: © The Author(s) 2025.

PY - 2025/12/16

Y1 - 2025/12/16

N2 - The US Corn Belt is among the world’s most productive agricultural regions and a global hotspot for mesoscale convective systems (MCSs), which supply vital growing season rainfall but also drive hazardous flooding. While evapotranspiration (ET) from shallow groundwater, extensive croplands, and irrigation is known to influence regional precipitation, its role in fueling convective storms remains poorly understood. Here we use a high-resolution regional climate model coupled with an advanced water vapor tracer to track moisture from Corn Belt ET into individual convective storms. We find that the integrated groundwater-crop-irrigation interactions amplify MCS frequency by 24-35%, extend storm lifetime by up to 10%, and accelerate storm movement. Moisture from Corn Belt ET enhances the warm-moist inflows, sustaining convective cells and enhancing precipitation near the storm center, with more pronounced effects in stronger storms. These findings highlight the significant role of shallow groundwater and agricultural activities in intensifying convective storms, creating cascading hazards that threaten water and food security.

AB - The US Corn Belt is among the world’s most productive agricultural regions and a global hotspot for mesoscale convective systems (MCSs), which supply vital growing season rainfall but also drive hazardous flooding. While evapotranspiration (ET) from shallow groundwater, extensive croplands, and irrigation is known to influence regional precipitation, its role in fueling convective storms remains poorly understood. Here we use a high-resolution regional climate model coupled with an advanced water vapor tracer to track moisture from Corn Belt ET into individual convective storms. We find that the integrated groundwater-crop-irrigation interactions amplify MCS frequency by 24-35%, extend storm lifetime by up to 10%, and accelerate storm movement. Moisture from Corn Belt ET enhances the warm-moist inflows, sustaining convective cells and enhancing precipitation near the storm center, with more pronounced effects in stronger storms. These findings highlight the significant role of shallow groundwater and agricultural activities in intensifying convective storms, creating cascading hazards that threaten water and food security.

KW - Land-atmosphere interactions

KW - Climate-change

KW - Irrigation

KW - Model

KW - Precipitation

KW - Agriculture

KW - Feedbacks

KW - Evolution

KW - Regions

KW - Systems

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DO - 10.1038/s43247-025-03089-0

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JO - Communications Earth and Environment

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ER -

Moisture from US Corn Belt fuels more intense convective storms

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