New Climate Change Center of Saudi Arabia: Advancing Understanding and Prediction for the Arabian Peninsula Climate

The desert climate of the Arabian Peninsula (AP), marked by sparse rainfall, extreme temperatures, and frequent dust events, significantly impacts its 80-million population, environment, and economy. Rising temperatures and dust incursions exacerbate these harsh conditions, yet the AP's climate is underrepresented in global climate research. Understanding its variability is crucial for improving predictions on subseasonal-to-seasonal timescales and for developing reliable climate change projections. Existing climate models fail to capture the region's unique environment, topography, and land-use changes, leading to poor representation of key processes like local convection, aridity, and moisture transport. To address these gaps, Saudi Arabia established the Climate Change Center (CCC) in 2022, part of the Saudi Vision 2030 initiative. The CCC aims to study climate variability and project future changes using advanced Earth system models developed in collaboration with international partners. This study presents the CCC's roadmap, focusing on its relevance for global climate research and policymaking, including the Saudi and Middle East Green Initiatives. We also discuss regional uncertainties in the IPCC's climate projections for the AP and highlight the development of high-resolution regional models that account for local atmospheric, land, and oceanic processes. The CCC is developing subseasonal-to-seasonal forecasting systems and drought monitoring tools, alongside user-friendly dashboards to offer stakeholders customized climate data. These tools, set for launch in 2025, will aid informed decision-making in addressing extreme weather events and climate-related challenges in Saudi Arabia.