New irradiance models for solar energy

The National Center for Atmospheric Research and partners are building a series of short range nowcasting models and improving upon longer range numerical weather prediction (NWP) models as part of the Public-Private-Academic Partnership to Advance Solar Power Forecasting. The nowcasting models include statistical learning models that include cloud regime prediction, sky imager-based advection models, satellite image-based advection models, and rapid update NWP models. The team has also integrated new modules into the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) to better predict clouds, aerosols, and irradiance. The modules include a new shallow convection scheme; upgraded physics parameterizations of clouds; new radiative transfer modules that specify GHI, DNI, and DIF prediction; better satellite assimilation methods; and new aerosol climatologies. These new physical models are integrated via the Dynamic Integrated Forecast (DICast) system to provide seamless forecasts at partner utility and balancing authority sites.