Numerical simulations of a case of explosive marine cyclogenesis.

This study suggests that baroclinic instabilty in the weakly stratified lower troposphere is the major mechanism of growth for the QE II cyclone, as discussed by Reed, although latent heat plays an important role in the later stages of development. The development of this strong, yet relatively shallow, storm has three major implications for improving operational forecasts of similar storms. First, the vertical resolution of the model must be adequate; our estimate is that at least four model layers are required below 700 mb. Second, the lower-tropospheric winds, static stability, water vapor content, and sea-surface temperature must be resolved accurately in the initial analysis because of the sensitivity of the model storm to these fields. Third, continued improvement of modeling planetary boundary-layer and latent heating processes is likely to be important in cases of this type.-from Authors