Observational evidence for the influence of surface heat fluxes on rapid maritime cyclogenesis

Results indicate a strong correlation between the underestimate of 24 hr central pressure fall by the model and the increase in 1000-500 mb thickness that would occur if that layer were to become neutrally stable to surface parcels saturated at sea surface temperature. We find the correlation particularly robust for the more rapid deepeners of the sample. In the second portion of this study, the climatology of the difference between this "potential saturation thickness' and the actual 1000-500 mb thickness is calculated. From twice daily data extending over 15 yr (1963-77), the mean is computed for positive values of thickness difference only. Regions of large mean values correspond quite well with regions of frequent explosive cyclogenesis. -from Authors