Observed and predicted sensitivities of extreme surface ozone to meteorological drivers in three US cities

Miranda J. Fix; Daniel Cooley; Alma Hodzic; Eric Gilleland; Brook T. Russell; William C. Porter; Gabriele G. Pfister

doi:10.1016/j.atmosenv.2017.12.036

Observed and predicted sensitivities of extreme surface ozone to meteorological drivers in three US cities

Miranda J. Fix, Daniel Cooley, Alma Hodzic, Eric Gilleland, Brook T. Russell, William C. Porter, Gabriele G. Pfister

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

18 Scopus citations

Abstract

We conduct a case study of observed and simulated maximum daily 8-h average (MDA8) ozone (O₃) in three US cities for summers during 1996–2005. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the ability of a high resolution atmospheric chemistry model to reproduce observed relationships between meteorology and high or extreme O₃. We employ regional coupled chemistry-transport model simulations to make three types of comparisons between simulated and observational data, comparing (1) tails of the O₃ response variable, (2) distributions of meteorological predictor variables, and (3) sensitivities of high and extreme O₃ to meteorological predictors. This last comparison is made using two methods: quantile regression, for the 0.95 quantile of O₃, and tail dependence optimization, which is used to investigate even higher O₃ extremes. Across all three locations, we find substantial differences between simulations and observational data in both meteorology and meteorological sensitivities of high and extreme O₃.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	292-300
Number of pages	9
Journal	Atmospheric Environment
Volume	176
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2017.12.036
State	Published - Mar 2018
Externally published	Yes

Keywords

Extreme value theory
Meteorological variables
Quantile regression
Surface ozone

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10.1016/j.atmosenv.2017.12.036

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@article{7ee948a4bd1943a6b2a167752fd64e81,

title = "Observed and predicted sensitivities of extreme surface ozone to meteorological drivers in three US cities",

abstract = "We conduct a case study of observed and simulated maximum daily 8-h average (MDA8) ozone (O3) in three US cities for summers during 1996–2005. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the ability of a high resolution atmospheric chemistry model to reproduce observed relationships between meteorology and high or extreme O3. We employ regional coupled chemistry-transport model simulations to make three types of comparisons between simulated and observational data, comparing (1) tails of the O3 response variable, (2) distributions of meteorological predictor variables, and (3) sensitivities of high and extreme O3 to meteorological predictors. This last comparison is made using two methods: quantile regression, for the 0.95 quantile of O3, and tail dependence optimization, which is used to investigate even higher O3 extremes. Across all three locations, we find substantial differences between simulations and observational data in both meteorology and meteorological sensitivities of high and extreme O3.",

keywords = "Extreme value theory, Meteorological variables, Quantile regression, Surface ozone",

author = "Fix, \{Miranda J.\} and Daniel Cooley and Alma Hodzic and Eric Gilleland and Russell, \{Brook T.\} and Porter, \{William C.\} and Pfister, \{Gabriele G.\}",

note = "Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2017 Elsevier Ltd",

year = "2018",

month = mar,

doi = "10.1016/j.atmosenv.2017.12.036",

language = "English",

volume = "176",

pages = "292--300",

journal = "Atmospheric Environment",

issn = "1352-2310",

publisher = "Elsevier Ltd",

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TY - JOUR

T1 - Observed and predicted sensitivities of extreme surface ozone to meteorological drivers in three US cities

AU - Fix, Miranda J.

AU - Cooley, Daniel

AU - Hodzic, Alma

AU - Gilleland, Eric

AU - Russell, Brook T.

AU - Porter, William C.

AU - Pfister, Gabriele G.

PY - 2018/3

Y1 - 2018/3

N2 - We conduct a case study of observed and simulated maximum daily 8-h average (MDA8) ozone (O3) in three US cities for summers during 1996–2005. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the ability of a high resolution atmospheric chemistry model to reproduce observed relationships between meteorology and high or extreme O3. We employ regional coupled chemistry-transport model simulations to make three types of comparisons between simulated and observational data, comparing (1) tails of the O3 response variable, (2) distributions of meteorological predictor variables, and (3) sensitivities of high and extreme O3 to meteorological predictors. This last comparison is made using two methods: quantile regression, for the 0.95 quantile of O3, and tail dependence optimization, which is used to investigate even higher O3 extremes. Across all three locations, we find substantial differences between simulations and observational data in both meteorology and meteorological sensitivities of high and extreme O3.

AB - We conduct a case study of observed and simulated maximum daily 8-h average (MDA8) ozone (O3) in three US cities for summers during 1996–2005. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the ability of a high resolution atmospheric chemistry model to reproduce observed relationships between meteorology and high or extreme O3. We employ regional coupled chemistry-transport model simulations to make three types of comparisons between simulated and observational data, comparing (1) tails of the O3 response variable, (2) distributions of meteorological predictor variables, and (3) sensitivities of high and extreme O3 to meteorological predictors. This last comparison is made using two methods: quantile regression, for the 0.95 quantile of O3, and tail dependence optimization, which is used to investigate even higher O3 extremes. Across all three locations, we find substantial differences between simulations and observational data in both meteorology and meteorological sensitivities of high and extreme O3.

KW - Extreme value theory

KW - Meteorological variables

KW - Quantile regression

KW - Surface ozone

UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/85044443716

U2 - 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2017.12.036

DO - 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2017.12.036

M3 - Article

AN - SCOPUS:85044443716

SN - 1352-2310

VL - 176

SP - 292

EP - 300

JO - Atmospheric Environment

JF - Atmospheric Environment

ER -

Observed and predicted sensitivities of extreme surface ozone to meteorological drivers in three US cities

Abstract

Keywords

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