Abstract
We investigate the sensitivity of hurricane intensity and structure to the horizontal tracer advection in the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) Finite-Volume Cubed-Sphere Dynamical Core (FV3). We compare two schemes, a monotonic scheme and a less diffusive positive-definite scheme. The positive-definite scheme leads to significant improvement in the intensity prediction relative to the monotonic scheme in a suite of 5-day forecasts that mostly consist of rapidly intensifying hurricanes. Notable storm structural differences are present: the radius of maximum wind (RMW) is smaller and eyewall convection occurs farther inside the RMW when the positive-definite scheme is used. Moreover, we find that the horizontal tracer advection scheme affects the eyewall convection location by affecting the moisture distribution in the inner-core region. This study highlights the importance of dynamical core algorithms in hurricane intensity prediction.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 3007-3021 |
| Number of pages | 15 |
| Journal | Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences |
| Volume | 78 |
| Issue number | 9 |
| DOIs | |
| State | Published - Sep 2021 |
Keywords
- Numerical analysis/modeling
- Numerical weather prediction/forecasting
- Tropical cyclones