PM_2.5- and ozone-related health impact in a changing climate

The PM_2.5- and ozone-related short and long term mortality in 2000 and in 2050 over the continental US were studied using the Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program Community Edition. Future air quality results predicted that the annual mean PM_2.5 concentration will decrease nationwide, especially in the eastern US and west coast. However, the ozone concentration was projected to decrease in the Eastern US but increase in the Western US. Future mortality was assessed under two scenarios, i.e., holding future population and baseline incidence rate at the present level; and using the projected baseline incidence rate and population in 2050. The entire continental US showed a decreasing trend of PM_2.5-related mortality by the 2050 in Scenario (1), primarily resulting from the emissions reduction. While in Scenario (2), almost 50% of the continental states showed an increasing tendency of PM_2.5-related mortality, due to the dominant influence of population growth. In particular, the highest PM_2.5-related deaths and the biggest discrepancy between present and future PM_2.5-related deaths will both occur in California in 2050s. For the ozone-related premature mortality, the simulation showed an increasing tendency in under both two scenarios, mainly due to the projected increase of methane, ozone concentration, and population.This is an abstract of a paper presented at the A&WMA's 109th Annual Conference & Exhibition (New Orleans, LA 6/20-23/2016).