Precipitation Over a Wide Range of Climates Simulated With Comprehensive GCMs

Idealized general circulation models (GCMs) suggest global-mean precipitation ceases to increase with warming in hot climates because evaporation is limited by the available solar radiation at the surface. We investigate the extent to which this generalizes in comprehensive GCMs. We find that in the Community Atmosphere Model, global-mean precipitation increases approximately linearly with global-mean surface temperatures up to about 330 K, where it peaks at 5 mm day⁻¹. Beyond 330 K, global-mean precipitation decreases substantially despite increasing surface temperatures because of increased atmospheric shortwave absorption by water vapor, which decreases the shortwave radiation available for evaporation at the surface. Precipitation decreases in the tropics and subtropics but continues to increase in the extratropics because of continuously strengthening poleward moisture transport. Precipitable water increases everywhere, resulting in longer water-vapor residence times and implying more episodic precipitation. Other GCMs indicate global-mean precipitation might exhibit a smaller maximum rate and begin to decrease at lower surface temperatures.