Predictability of Mesoscale Atmospheric Motions

This chapter describes the predictability of mesoscale atmospheric motions. The advances in scientific understanding and technology have made it possible to envisage significant improvements in predicting mesoscale atmospheric events. Two properties of the atmosphere are considered important in limiting atmospheric predictability. First is the existence of instabilities that cause neighboring trajectories in phase space to diverge. Surface inhomogeneities including elevation and surface characteristics generate many mesoscale phenomena and modulate their behavior. When global models are used in classic predictability studies, the likelihood of possible errors in the overall estimate of synoptic-scale predictability is minimized by the consideration of the entire earth, which is likely to have a full complement of representative weather patterns over the period of the predictability experiment.