Predictability of the Mesosphere and Lower Thermosphere During Major Sudden Stratospheric Warmings

The predictability of the middle atmosphere during major sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) is investigated based on subseasonal hindcasts in the Community Earth System Model, version 2 with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model as its atmospheric component (CESM2[WACCM6]). The CESM2(WACCM6) hindcasts allow for the first comprehensive investigation into the predictability of the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT) during SSWs. Analysis of 14 major SSWs demonstrates that CESM2(WACCM6) hindcasts initialized (Formula presented.) 5–15 days prior to the SSW onset are able to predict the timing of the SSW, though they underestimate the strength of the SSW. Aspects of the MLT variability, such as the mesosphere cooling and enhanced semidiurnal tide, are found to be well predicted. The demonstrated ability to predict MLT variability during SSWs indicates the potential for improved multi-day space weather forecasting. Improved space weather forecasting may be achieved by using whole atmosphere models that can predict the MLT variability that drives ionosphere-thermosphere variability during SSWs.