Predicting changes in intensity of tropical cyclones using a Markov chain technique

At present no skilful, quantitative technique exists for the operational prediction of changes in tropical cyclone intensity. Here we describe the application of a Markov chain technique to this difficult problem. The method predicts transitional probabilities between five discrete categories of intensity and these probabilities are applied to short-period (24 hours) forecasting of tropical cyclones in the Australian region. -from Authors