Predicting solar 'climate' by assimilating magnetic data into a flux-transport dynamo

Observational and theoretical knowledge about global-scale solar dynamo ingredients have reached the stage that it is possible to calibrate a flux-transport dynamo for the Sun by adjusting only a few tunable parameters. The important ingredients in this class of model are differential rotation (Omega-effect), helical turbulence (alpha-effect), meridional circulation and turbulent diffusion. The meridional circulation works as a conveyor belt and governs the dynamo cycle period. Meridional circulation and magnetic diffusivity together govern the memory of the Sun's past magnetic fields. After describing the physical processes involved in a flux-transport dynamo, we will show that a predictive tool can be built from it to predict mean solar cycle features by assimilating magnetic field data from previous cycles. We will discuss the theoretical and observational connections among various predictors, such as dynamo-generated toroidal flux integral, cross-equatorial flux, polar fields and geomagnetic indices.