Probabilistic forecasts of convection: How do we do it?

Cynthia K. Mueller; B. G. Brown; D. Megenhardt

Probabilistic forecasts of convection: How do we do it?

Cynthia K. Mueller
, B. G. Brown
, D. Megenhardt

Weather Intelligence & Security Program

National Center for Atmospheric Research

Research output: Contribution to journal › Conference article › peer-review

Abstract

The methodology and verification methods to produce new convective weather forecast-2 (NCWF-2) probabilistic forecast are discussed. Verification techniques show the inability of standard skill scores such as CSI to discern between various probability forecasts calculated at different scales. It is found that the reliability plots discern between different filter sizes and probability levels. It is suggested that using a spatial filter to derive probabilities can be used to get good reliability in the forecast.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	3187-3202
Number of pages	16
Journal	Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
State	Published - 2004
Event	Combined Preprints: 84th American Meteorological Society (AMS) Annual Meeting - Seattle, WA., United States Duration: Jan 11 2004 → Jan 15 2004

Cite this

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title = "Probabilistic forecasts of convection: How do we do it?",

abstract = "The methodology and verification methods to produce new convective weather forecast-2 (NCWF-2) probabilistic forecast are discussed. Verification techniques show the inability of standard skill scores such as CSI to discern between various probability forecasts calculated at different scales. It is found that the reliability plots discern between different filter sizes and probability levels. It is suggested that using a spatial filter to derive probabilities can be used to get good reliability in the forecast.",

author = "Mueller, \{Cynthia K.\} and Brown, \{B. G.\} and D. Megenhardt",

year = "2004",

language = "English",

pages = "3187--3202",

journal = "Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society",

issn = "0003-0007",

publisher = "American Meteorological Society",

note = "Combined Preprints: 84th American Meteorological Society (AMS) Annual Meeting ; Conference date: 11-01-2004 Through 15-01-2004",

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TY - JOUR

T1 - Probabilistic forecasts of convection

T2 - Combined Preprints: 84th American Meteorological Society (AMS) Annual Meeting

AU - Mueller, Cynthia K.

AU - Brown, B. G.

AU - Megenhardt, D.

PY - 2004

Y1 - 2004

N2 - The methodology and verification methods to produce new convective weather forecast-2 (NCWF-2) probabilistic forecast are discussed. Verification techniques show the inability of standard skill scores such as CSI to discern between various probability forecasts calculated at different scales. It is found that the reliability plots discern between different filter sizes and probability levels. It is suggested that using a spatial filter to derive probabilities can be used to get good reliability in the forecast.

AB - The methodology and verification methods to produce new convective weather forecast-2 (NCWF-2) probabilistic forecast are discussed. Verification techniques show the inability of standard skill scores such as CSI to discern between various probability forecasts calculated at different scales. It is found that the reliability plots discern between different filter sizes and probability levels. It is suggested that using a spatial filter to derive probabilities can be used to get good reliability in the forecast.

UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/2442484549

M3 - Conference article

AN - SCOPUS:2442484549

SN - 0003-0007

SP - 3187

EP - 3202

JO - Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society

JF - Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society

Y2 - 11 January 2004 through 15 January 2004

ER -

Probabilistic forecasts of convection: How do we do it?

Abstract

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