TY - JOUR
T1 - Projected continent-wide declines of the emperor penguin under climate change
AU - Jenouvrier, Stéphanie
AU - Holland, Marika
AU - Stroeve, Julienne
AU - Serreze, Mark
AU - Barbraud, Christophe
AU - Weimerskirch, Henri
AU - Caswell, Hal
PY - 2014/8
Y1 - 2014/8
N2 - Climate change has been projected to affect species distribution and future trends of local populations, but projections of global population trends are rare. We analyse global population trends of the emperor penguin (Aptenodytes forsteri), an iconic Antarctic top predator, under the influence of sea ice conditions projected by coupled climate models assessed in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) effort. We project the dynamics of all 45 known emperor penguin colonies by forcing a sea-ice-dependent demographic model with local, colony-specific, sea ice conditions projected through to the end of the twenty-first century. Dynamics differ among colonies, but by 2100 all populations are projected to be declining. At least two-thirds are projected to have declined by >50% from their current size. The global population is projected to have declined by at least 19%. Because criteria to classify species by their extinction risk are based on the global population dynamics, global analyses are critical for conservation. We discuss uncertainties arising in such global projections and the problems of defining conservation criteria for species endangered by future climate change.
AB - Climate change has been projected to affect species distribution and future trends of local populations, but projections of global population trends are rare. We analyse global population trends of the emperor penguin (Aptenodytes forsteri), an iconic Antarctic top predator, under the influence of sea ice conditions projected by coupled climate models assessed in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) effort. We project the dynamics of all 45 known emperor penguin colonies by forcing a sea-ice-dependent demographic model with local, colony-specific, sea ice conditions projected through to the end of the twenty-first century. Dynamics differ among colonies, but by 2100 all populations are projected to be declining. At least two-thirds are projected to have declined by >50% from their current size. The global population is projected to have declined by at least 19%. Because criteria to classify species by their extinction risk are based on the global population dynamics, global analyses are critical for conservation. We discuss uncertainties arising in such global projections and the problems of defining conservation criteria for species endangered by future climate change.
UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/84905372458
U2 - 10.1038/nclimate2280
DO - 10.1038/nclimate2280
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:84905372458
SN - 1758-678X
VL - 4
SP - 715
EP - 718
JO - Nature Climate Change
JF - Nature Climate Change
IS - 8
ER -