Rate parameter uncertainty effects in assessing stratospheric ozone depletion by supersonic aviation

Box model sensitivity-uncertainty calculations for O₃ depletion from supersonic aircraft emissions were performed at the most perturbed locale using localized outputs of the LLNL 2-D diurnally averaged assessment model. Processes controlling N₂O₅, catalytic O₃ loss steps O+NO₂ and HO₂+O₃, HOx sink reactions OH+ HNO₃/HNO₄, and the O+O₂ recombination that forms O₃ are identified as the dominant photochemical uncertainty sources. Guided by local sensitivities, 2-D model runs were repeated with 9 targeted input parameters altered to 1/3 of their 1-σ uncertainties to put error-bounds on the predicted O₃ change. Results indicate these kinetic errors can cause the predicted local O₃ loss of 1.5% to be uncertain by up to 3% in regions of large aircraft NOx injection.