Real-time tropical cyclone prediction using COAMPS-TC

J. D. Doyle; Y. Jin; R. M. Hodur; S. Chen; H. Jin; J. Moskaitis; A. Reinecke; P. Black; J. Cummings; E. Hendricks; T. Holt; C. S. Liou; M. Peng; C. Reynolds; K. Sashegyi; J. Schmidt; S. Wang

doi:10.1142/9789814405683_0002

Real-time tropical cyclone prediction using COAMPS-TC

J. D. Doyle, Y. Jin, R. M. Hodur, S. Chen, H. Jin, J. Moskaitis, A. Reinecke, P. Black, J. Cummings, E. Hendricks, T. Holt, C. S. Liou, M. Peng, C. Reynolds, K. Sashegyi, J. Schmidt, S. Wang

National Security Applications Program

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Chapter › peer-review

39 Scopus citations

Abstract

A new version of the Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System for Tropical Cyclones (COAMPS-TC^TM) has been developed specifically for forecasting tropical cyclone track, structure, and intensity. The COAMPS-TC has been tested in real-time in both coupled and uncoupled modes over the past several tropical cyclone seasons in the Pacific and Atlantic basins at a horizontal grid spacing of 5 km. An evaluation of a large sample of real-time forecasts for the 2010 and 2011 seasons in the Atlantic basin reveals that the COAMPS-TC predictions have smaller intensity errors than other real-time dynamical models for forecasts beyond the 30 h time. Real-time forecasts for Hurricane Irene (2011) illustrate the capability of the model to capture both the intensity and the fine-scale features (e.g., eyewall, rainbands), in agreement with observations. The results of this research highlight the promise of highresolution deterministic and ensemble-based approaches for tropical cyclone prediction using COAMPS-TC.

Original language	English
Title of host publication	Advances in Geosciences
Subtitle of host publication	Volume 28: Atmospheric Science (AS) and Ocean Science (OS)
Publisher	World Scientific Publishing Co.
Pages	15-28
Number of pages	14
ISBN (Electronic)	9789814405683
ISBN (Print)	9789814405676
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1142/9789814405683_0002
State	Published - Jan 1 2012

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Doyle, J. D., Jin, Y., Hodur, R. M., Chen, S., Jin, H., Moskaitis, J., Reinecke, A., Black, P., Cummings, J., Hendricks, E., Holt, T., Liou, C. S., Peng, M., Reynolds, C., Sashegyi, K., Schmidt, J., & Wang, S. (2012). Real-time tropical cyclone prediction using COAMPS-TC. In Advances in Geosciences: Volume 28: Atmospheric Science (AS) and Ocean Science (OS) (pp. 15-28). World Scientific Publishing Co.. https://doi.org/10.1142/9789814405683_0002

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abstract = "A new version of the Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System for Tropical Cyclones (COAMPS-TCTM) has been developed specifically for forecasting tropical cyclone track, structure, and intensity. The COAMPS-TC has been tested in real-time in both coupled and uncoupled modes over the past several tropical cyclone seasons in the Pacific and Atlantic basins at a horizontal grid spacing of 5 km. An evaluation of a large sample of real-time forecasts for the 2010 and 2011 seasons in the Atlantic basin reveals that the COAMPS-TC predictions have smaller intensity errors than other real-time dynamical models for forecasts beyond the 30 h time. Real-time forecasts for Hurricane Irene (2011) illustrate the capability of the model to capture both the intensity and the fine-scale features (e.g., eyewall, rainbands), in agreement with observations. The results of this research highlight the promise of highresolution deterministic and ensemble-based approaches for tropical cyclone prediction using COAMPS-TC.",

author = "Doyle, \{J. D.\} and Y. Jin and Hodur, \{R. M.\} and S. Chen and H. Jin and J. Moskaitis and A. Reinecke and P. Black and J. Cummings and E. Hendricks and T. Holt and Liou, \{C. S.\} and M. Peng and C. Reynolds and K. Sashegyi and J. Schmidt and S. Wang",

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Doyle, JD, Jin, Y, Hodur, RM, Chen, S, Jin, H, Moskaitis, J, Reinecke, A, Black, P, Cummings, J, Hendricks, E, Holt, T, Liou, CS, Peng, M, Reynolds, C, Sashegyi, K, Schmidt, J & Wang, S 2012, Real-time tropical cyclone prediction using COAMPS-TC. in Advances in Geosciences: Volume 28: Atmospheric Science (AS) and Ocean Science (OS). World Scientific Publishing Co., pp. 15-28. https://doi.org/10.1142/9789814405683_0002

TY - CHAP

T1 - Real-time tropical cyclone prediction using COAMPS-TC

AU - Doyle, J. D.

AU - Jin, Y.

AU - Hodur, R. M.

AU - Chen, S.

AU - Jin, H.

AU - Moskaitis, J.

AU - Reinecke, A.

AU - Black, P.

AU - Cummings, J.

AU - Hendricks, E.

AU - Holt, T.

AU - Liou, C. S.

AU - Peng, M.

AU - Reynolds, C.

AU - Sashegyi, K.

AU - Schmidt, J.

AU - Wang, S.

PY - 2012/1/1

Y1 - 2012/1/1

N2 - A new version of the Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System for Tropical Cyclones (COAMPS-TCTM) has been developed specifically for forecasting tropical cyclone track, structure, and intensity. The COAMPS-TC has been tested in real-time in both coupled and uncoupled modes over the past several tropical cyclone seasons in the Pacific and Atlantic basins at a horizontal grid spacing of 5 km. An evaluation of a large sample of real-time forecasts for the 2010 and 2011 seasons in the Atlantic basin reveals that the COAMPS-TC predictions have smaller intensity errors than other real-time dynamical models for forecasts beyond the 30 h time. Real-time forecasts for Hurricane Irene (2011) illustrate the capability of the model to capture both the intensity and the fine-scale features (e.g., eyewall, rainbands), in agreement with observations. The results of this research highlight the promise of highresolution deterministic and ensemble-based approaches for tropical cyclone prediction using COAMPS-TC.

AB - A new version of the Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System for Tropical Cyclones (COAMPS-TCTM) has been developed specifically for forecasting tropical cyclone track, structure, and intensity. The COAMPS-TC has been tested in real-time in both coupled and uncoupled modes over the past several tropical cyclone seasons in the Pacific and Atlantic basins at a horizontal grid spacing of 5 km. An evaluation of a large sample of real-time forecasts for the 2010 and 2011 seasons in the Atlantic basin reveals that the COAMPS-TC predictions have smaller intensity errors than other real-time dynamical models for forecasts beyond the 30 h time. Real-time forecasts for Hurricane Irene (2011) illustrate the capability of the model to capture both the intensity and the fine-scale features (e.g., eyewall, rainbands), in agreement with observations. The results of this research highlight the promise of highresolution deterministic and ensemble-based approaches for tropical cyclone prediction using COAMPS-TC.

UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/84888396003

U2 - 10.1142/9789814405683_0002

DO - 10.1142/9789814405683_0002

M3 - Chapter

AN - SCOPUS:84888396003

SN - 9789814405676

SP - 15

EP - 28

BT - Advances in Geosciences

PB - World Scientific Publishing Co.

ER -

Real-time tropical cyclone prediction using COAMPS-TC

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