Reappraisal of the Climate Impacts of Ozone-Depleting Substances

Olaf Morgenstern; Fiona M. O'Connor; Ben T. Johnson; Guang Zeng; Jane P. Mulcahy; Jonny Williams; João Teixeira; Martine Michou; Pierre Nabat; Larry W. Horowitz; Vaishali Naik; Lori T. Sentman; Makoto Deushi; Susanne E. Bauer; Kostas Tsigaridis; Drew T. Shindell; Douglas E. Kinnison

doi:10.1029/2020GL088295

Reappraisal of the Climate Impacts of Ozone-Depleting Substances

Olaf Morgenstern, Fiona M. O'Connor, Ben T. Johnson, Guang Zeng, Jane P. Mulcahy, Jonny Williams, João Teixeira, Martine Michou, Pierre Nabat, Larry W. Horowitz, Vaishali Naik, Lori T. Sentman, Makoto Deushi, Susanne E. Bauer, Kostas Tsigaridis, Drew T. Shindell, Douglas E. Kinnison

ACOM Modeling

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Abstract

We assess the effective radiative forcing due to ozone-depleting substances using models participating in the Aerosols and Chemistry and Radiative Forcing Model Intercomparison Projects (AerChemMIP, RFMIP). A large intermodel spread in this globally averaged quantity necessitates an “emergent constraint” approach whereby we link the radiative forcing to ozone declines measured and simulated during 1979–2000, excluding two volcanically perturbed periods. During this period, ozone-depleting substances were increasing, and several merged satellite-based climatologies document the ensuing decline of total-column ozone. Using these analyses, we find an effective radiative forcing of −0.05 to 0.13 W m⁻². Our best estimate (0.04 W m⁻²) is on the edge of the “likely” range given by the Fifth Assessment Report of IPCC of 0.03 to 0.33 W m⁻² but is in better agreement with two other literature results.

Original language	English
Article number	e2020GL088295
Journal	Geophysical Research Letters
Volume	47
Issue number	20
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL088295
State	Published - Oct 28 2020

Keywords

climate change
emergent constraint
ozone depletion
radiative forcing

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10.1029/2020GL088295

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Morgenstern, O., O'Connor, F. M., Johnson, B. T., Zeng, G., Mulcahy, J. P., Williams, J., Teixeira, J., Michou, M., Nabat, P., Horowitz, L. W., Naik, V., Sentman, L. T., Deushi, M., Bauer, S. E., Tsigaridis, K., Shindell, D. T., & Kinnison, D. E. (2020). Reappraisal of the Climate Impacts of Ozone-Depleting Substances. Geophysical Research Letters, 47(20), Article e2020GL088295. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL088295

@article{ee1674a663954afdb177eed109b69750,

title = "Reappraisal of the Climate Impacts of Ozone-Depleting Substances",

abstract = "We assess the effective radiative forcing due to ozone-depleting substances using models participating in the Aerosols and Chemistry and Radiative Forcing Model Intercomparison Projects (AerChemMIP, RFMIP). A large intermodel spread in this globally averaged quantity necessitates an “emergent constraint” approach whereby we link the radiative forcing to ozone declines measured and simulated during 1979–2000, excluding two volcanically perturbed periods. During this period, ozone-depleting substances were increasing, and several merged satellite-based climatologies document the ensuing decline of total-column ozone. Using these analyses, we find an effective radiative forcing of −0.05 to 0.13 W m−2. Our best estimate (0.04 W m−2) is on the edge of the “likely” range given by the Fifth Assessment Report of IPCC of 0.03 to 0.33 W m−2 but is in better agreement with two other literature results.",

keywords = "climate change, emergent constraint, ozone depletion, radiative forcing",

author = "Olaf Morgenstern and O'Connor, \{Fiona M.\} and Johnson, \{Ben T.\} and Guang Zeng and Mulcahy, \{Jane P.\} and Jonny Williams and Jo{\~a}o Teixeira and Martine Michou and Pierre Nabat and Horowitz, \{Larry W.\} and Vaishali Naik and Sentman, \{Lori T.\} and Makoto Deushi and Bauer, \{Susanne E.\} and Kostas Tsigaridis and Shindell, \{Drew T.\} and Kinnison, \{Douglas E.\}",

note = "Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright}2020. The Authors.",

year = "2020",

month = oct,

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doi = "10.1029/2020GL088295",

language = "English",

volume = "47",

journal = "Geophysical Research Letters",

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Morgenstern, O, O'Connor, FM, Johnson, BT, Zeng, G, Mulcahy, JP, Williams, J, Teixeira, J, Michou, M, Nabat, P, Horowitz, LW, Naik, V, Sentman, LT, Deushi, M, Bauer, SE, Tsigaridis, K, Shindell, DT & Kinnison, DE 2020, 'Reappraisal of the Climate Impacts of Ozone-Depleting Substances', Geophysical Research Letters, vol. 47, no. 20, e2020GL088295. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL088295

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T1 - Reappraisal of the Climate Impacts of Ozone-Depleting Substances

AU - Morgenstern, Olaf

AU - O'Connor, Fiona M.

AU - Johnson, Ben T.

AU - Zeng, Guang

AU - Mulcahy, Jane P.

AU - Williams, Jonny

AU - Teixeira, João

AU - Michou, Martine

AU - Nabat, Pierre

AU - Horowitz, Larry W.

AU - Naik, Vaishali

AU - Sentman, Lori T.

AU - Deushi, Makoto

AU - Bauer, Susanne E.

AU - Tsigaridis, Kostas

AU - Shindell, Drew T.

AU - Kinnison, Douglas E.

PY - 2020/10/28

Y1 - 2020/10/28

N2 - We assess the effective radiative forcing due to ozone-depleting substances using models participating in the Aerosols and Chemistry and Radiative Forcing Model Intercomparison Projects (AerChemMIP, RFMIP). A large intermodel spread in this globally averaged quantity necessitates an “emergent constraint” approach whereby we link the radiative forcing to ozone declines measured and simulated during 1979–2000, excluding two volcanically perturbed periods. During this period, ozone-depleting substances were increasing, and several merged satellite-based climatologies document the ensuing decline of total-column ozone. Using these analyses, we find an effective radiative forcing of −0.05 to 0.13 W m−2. Our best estimate (0.04 W m−2) is on the edge of the “likely” range given by the Fifth Assessment Report of IPCC of 0.03 to 0.33 W m−2 but is in better agreement with two other literature results.

AB - We assess the effective radiative forcing due to ozone-depleting substances using models participating in the Aerosols and Chemistry and Radiative Forcing Model Intercomparison Projects (AerChemMIP, RFMIP). A large intermodel spread in this globally averaged quantity necessitates an “emergent constraint” approach whereby we link the radiative forcing to ozone declines measured and simulated during 1979–2000, excluding two volcanically perturbed periods. During this period, ozone-depleting substances were increasing, and several merged satellite-based climatologies document the ensuing decline of total-column ozone. Using these analyses, we find an effective radiative forcing of −0.05 to 0.13 W m−2. Our best estimate (0.04 W m−2) is on the edge of the “likely” range given by the Fifth Assessment Report of IPCC of 0.03 to 0.33 W m−2 but is in better agreement with two other literature results.

KW - climate change

KW - emergent constraint

KW - ozone depletion

KW - radiative forcing

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DO - 10.1029/2020GL088295

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SN - 0094-8276

VL - 47

JO - Geophysical Research Letters

JF - Geophysical Research Letters

IS - 20

M1 - e2020GL088295

ER -

Reappraisal of the Climate Impacts of Ozone-Depleting Substances

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Keywords

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