TY - JOUR
T1 - Rising atmospheric moisture escalates the future impact of atmospheric rivers in the Antarctic climate system
AU - Maclennan, Michelle L.
AU - Winters, Andrew C.
AU - Shields, Christine A.
AU - Thaker, Rudradutt
AU - Barthelemy, Léonard
AU - Codron, Francis
AU - Wille, Jonathan D.
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© Crown 2025.
PY - 2025/12
Y1 - 2025/12
N2 - Despite their relative rarity, atmospheric rivers are key contributors to the surface mass balance of Antarctica. However, the future role of atmospheric rivers in modulating Antarctic sea-level contributions is a major area of uncertainty. Here, we leverage high-resolution climate simulations to show that Antarctic atmospheric rivers are highly sensitive to future increases in atmospheric moisture, leading to a doubling of atmospheric river frequencies and 2.5 × increase in precipitation from 2066–2100 under present-day thresholds for atmospheric river detection. However, future precipitation impacts are critically dependent on the detection threshold: accounting for moisture increases in the threshold produces smaller, regional changes in atmospheric river frequency, primarily resulting from an eastward shift in the polar jet maximum wind speeds. Our results underscore the importance of using large ensembles to quantify Antarctic atmospheric river responses to variability in projected moisture, which may not be captured when using only a few ensemble members.
AB - Despite their relative rarity, atmospheric rivers are key contributors to the surface mass balance of Antarctica. However, the future role of atmospheric rivers in modulating Antarctic sea-level contributions is a major area of uncertainty. Here, we leverage high-resolution climate simulations to show that Antarctic atmospheric rivers are highly sensitive to future increases in atmospheric moisture, leading to a doubling of atmospheric river frequencies and 2.5 × increase in precipitation from 2066–2100 under present-day thresholds for atmospheric river detection. However, future precipitation impacts are critically dependent on the detection threshold: accounting for moisture increases in the threshold produces smaller, regional changes in atmospheric river frequency, primarily resulting from an eastward shift in the polar jet maximum wind speeds. Our results underscore the importance of using large ensembles to quantify Antarctic atmospheric river responses to variability in projected moisture, which may not be captured when using only a few ensemble members.
UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/105005091671
U2 - 10.1038/s43247-025-02333-x
DO - 10.1038/s43247-025-02333-x
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:105005091671
SN - 2662-4435
VL - 6
JO - Communications Earth and Environment
JF - Communications Earth and Environment
IS - 1
M1 - 369
ER -