Simulation of intense organized convective precipitation observed during the Arabian Sea Monsoon Experiment (ARMEX)

We examine a deep precipitating system that formed over the west coast of India during 26-28 June 2002 producing heavy rainfall of 2-61 cin day^-1. The system developed into a well-marked low pressure area due to interaction between an eastward moving westerly trough and a westward moving monsoon low. We used the PSU/NCAR Mesoscale Model (MM5) to make 10-day interactively nested simulations at 90, 30, and 10 km grid-resolutions. We used observations from a special data set collected during an Arabian Sea Monsoon Experiment (ARMEX) conducted June-August, 2002. Nudging the observations produced a balanced atmosphere which, in turn, matched the location of vortex with cloud clusters observed from satellite. The simulated rainfall corresponded well with observations. We then use the simulated fields as forcing and boundary conditions for MM5 run in cloud-system resolving mode at 2 km grid-resolution to detail cloud-clusters embedded within the monsoon disturbance. We examined the sensitivity to different physical parameterizations and also the effect of continuous nudging four dimensional data assimilation (FDDA) on the rainfall forecasts. While the simulation of the convective event improved with certain combinations of physical parameterizations, the rainfall was not forecasted at the correct location, no matter which parameterization was used, unless continuous FDDA was performed in all domains throughout the integrations. Finally, cloud-cluster properties of the cloud-system resolving simulations were compared with observations.