Abstract
The entire distribution of forecast quality for a large set of forecasts as a function of lead time is examined. A set of control forecasts that clearly have no skill is presented. The quality distribution for the extended-range forecasts is compared to the distributions of quality for the no-skill control forecast set. The extended-range forecast quality distributions are found to be essentially indistinguishable from those for the no-skill control of leads somewhat greater than 12 days. A search for individual forecasts with a "return of skill' at extended ranges is also made. Although it is possible to find individual forecasts that have a return of quality, a comparison to the no-skill controls demonstrates that these return of skill forecasts occur only as often as is expected by chance. -from Authors
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 507-516 |
| Number of pages | 10 |
| Journal | Monthly Weather Review |
| Volume | 122 |
| Issue number | 3 |
| DOIs | |
| State | Published - 1994 |
| Externally published | Yes |
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