Sources of subseasonal predictability over CONUS during boreal summer

V. Krishnamurthy; Jessica Meixner; Lydia Stefanova; Jiande Wang; Denise Worthen; Shrinivas Moorthi; Bin Li; Travis Sluka; Cristiana Stan

doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0586.1

Sources of subseasonal predictability over CONUS during boreal summer

V. Krishnamurthy, Jessica Meixner, Lydia Stefanova, Jiande Wang, Denise Worthen, Shrinivas Moorthi, Bin Li, Travis Sluka, Cristiana Stan

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

13 Scopus citations

Abstract

The predictability of the Unified Forecast System (UFS) Coupled Model Prototype 2 developed by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction is assessed for the boreal summer over the continental United States (CONUS). The retrospective forecasts of low-level horizontal wind, precipitation and 2-m temperature for 2011-17 are examined to determine the predictability at subseasonal time scale. Using a data-adaptive method, the leading modes of variability are obtained and identified to be related to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), intraseasonal oscillation (ISO), and warming trend. In a new approach, the sources of enhanced predictability are identified by examining the forecast errors and correlations in the weekly averages of the leading modes of variability. During the boreal summer, the ISO followed by the trend in UFS are found to provide better predictability in weeks 1-4 compared to the ENSO mode and the total anomaly. The western CONUS seems to have better predictability on weekly time scale in all three modes.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	3273-3294
Number of pages	22
Journal	Journal of Climate
Volume	34
Issue number	9
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0586.1
State	Published - Mar 1 2021
Externally published	Yes

Keywords

Climate prediction
Hindcasts
Intraseasonal variability
Operational forecasting
Oscillations
Seasonal forecasting

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10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0586.1

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title = "Sources of subseasonal predictability over CONUS during boreal summer",

abstract = "The predictability of the Unified Forecast System (UFS) Coupled Model Prototype 2 developed by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction is assessed for the boreal summer over the continental United States (CONUS). The retrospective forecasts of low-level horizontal wind, precipitation and 2-m temperature for 2011-17 are examined to determine the predictability at subseasonal time scale. Using a data-adaptive method, the leading modes of variability are obtained and identified to be related to El Ni{\~n}o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), intraseasonal oscillation (ISO), and warming trend. In a new approach, the sources of enhanced predictability are identified by examining the forecast errors and correlations in the weekly averages of the leading modes of variability. During the boreal summer, the ISO followed by the trend in UFS are found to provide better predictability in weeks 1-4 compared to the ENSO mode and the total anomaly. The western CONUS seems to have better predictability on weekly time scale in all three modes.",

keywords = "Climate prediction, Hindcasts, Intraseasonal variability, Operational forecasting, Oscillations, Seasonal forecasting",

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AU - Meixner, Jessica

AU - Stefanova, Lydia

AU - Wang, Jiande

AU - Worthen, Denise

AU - Moorthi, Shrinivas

AU - Li, Bin

AU - Sluka, Travis

AU - Stan, Cristiana

N1 - Publisher Copyright: © 2021 American Meteorological Society. For information regarding reuse of this content and general copyright information, consult the AMS Copyright Policy (www.ametsoc.org/PUBSReuseLicenses).

PY - 2021/3/1

Y1 - 2021/3/1

N2 - The predictability of the Unified Forecast System (UFS) Coupled Model Prototype 2 developed by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction is assessed for the boreal summer over the continental United States (CONUS). The retrospective forecasts of low-level horizontal wind, precipitation and 2-m temperature for 2011-17 are examined to determine the predictability at subseasonal time scale. Using a data-adaptive method, the leading modes of variability are obtained and identified to be related to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), intraseasonal oscillation (ISO), and warming trend. In a new approach, the sources of enhanced predictability are identified by examining the forecast errors and correlations in the weekly averages of the leading modes of variability. During the boreal summer, the ISO followed by the trend in UFS are found to provide better predictability in weeks 1-4 compared to the ENSO mode and the total anomaly. The western CONUS seems to have better predictability on weekly time scale in all three modes.

AB - The predictability of the Unified Forecast System (UFS) Coupled Model Prototype 2 developed by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction is assessed for the boreal summer over the continental United States (CONUS). The retrospective forecasts of low-level horizontal wind, precipitation and 2-m temperature for 2011-17 are examined to determine the predictability at subseasonal time scale. Using a data-adaptive method, the leading modes of variability are obtained and identified to be related to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), intraseasonal oscillation (ISO), and warming trend. In a new approach, the sources of enhanced predictability are identified by examining the forecast errors and correlations in the weekly averages of the leading modes of variability. During the boreal summer, the ISO followed by the trend in UFS are found to provide better predictability in weeks 1-4 compared to the ENSO mode and the total anomaly. The western CONUS seems to have better predictability on weekly time scale in all three modes.

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KW - Hindcasts

KW - Intraseasonal variability

KW - Operational forecasting

KW - Oscillations

KW - Seasonal forecasting

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Sources of subseasonal predictability over CONUS during boreal summer

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Keywords

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